- Date and Time: Wednesday, October 30, 2024. 7:45 PM GMT+1
- Venue: MEWA Arena, Mainz, Germany
Mainz vs Bayern Munich Preview
Mainz
Bo Henriksen’s Mainz take a break from Bundesliga action on Wednesday as they collide with Bayern Munich in the DFB Pokal. The hosts have won just twice this season, but their performances at both ends of the field have been steady.
They are outperforming their xG and xGA, scoring ten from a stat of 7.96 from open play. Meanwhile, they have conceded just eight goals from open play while having an xGA of 10.95.
🎙️ Bo Henriksen: “We aren’t afraid of Bayern. Obviously, they are a good team, but we’re playing in Mainz and anything is possible.” #Mainz05 #M05FCB pic.twitter.com/KGHvfLx7Y6
— Mainz 05 English (@Mainz05en) October 29, 2024
A switch back to a 5-3-2 formation is likely, as it has provided more defensive stability. In the 101 minutes they’ve played in this setup, Mainz has conceded only one goal, in contrast to the 12 goals allowed with a more aggressive 3-4-2-1 formation.
Henriksen will need to contend without midfielders Nadiem Amiri and Nikolas Veratschnig this weekend, meaning Kaishu Sano is expected to retain his place in the starting eleven.
Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany has made a seamless transition to life back in Germany as a coach. Bayern Munich are setting the pace in the Bundesliga, scoring a staggering 29 goals in their first eight matches. Harry Kane is likely to be rested for the showdown this week, but the German club still have clear threats in the final third for the German Cup clash.
Bayern have averaged an xG of 17.13 so far this season.
📌 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐜𝐡: We take on Mainz in the second round of the #DFBPokal 🏆#M05FCB #FCBayern #MiaSanMia pic.twitter.com/YQHtiV9rMD
— FC Bayern (@FCBayernEN) October 28, 2024
They are outperforming the stats after netting 22 goals from open play. However, opposing sides are given chances, as Bayern have conceded an xGA of 3.67 and allowed five goals in the Bundesliga. It’s likely Bayern will dominate the ball once again on Wednesday, with João Palhinha and Joshua Kimmich deployed as the link between defence and the forwards.
Pace in the wide areas are a key factor that Mainz will need to address in this in the DFB Pokal clash, with both Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry both typically looking to cut in to take shots on their stronger left and right feet, respectively.
Bet hereMainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction
- Pick: Bayern Munich
- Odds: 1.27 (22Bet)
- Score prediction: Mainz 1-3 Bayern Munich
Even with Kane being given a night off, Bayern Munich have the quality in the final third to run out convincing winners in Mainz.
Bayern have been the dominant force in Germany so far this season, and while the home side’s deep defensive line of five may restrict Bayern’s pacey players from having an impact when running in behind, it will give Jamal Musiala the space he requires to drive at the defensive line.
🗣️ 𝗩𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗞𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 💬
“We remained calm, worked on the details and have gotten better. It’s been the same again. Our goal is to take the next step.”#FCBayern #MiaSanMia | #M05FCB pic.twitter.com/xLqNCEG2Hj
— FC Bayern (@FCBayernEN) October 29, 2024
Musiala will be a key player for Bayern on Wednesday. If he is able to pick up the ball on the half turn, he could get a lot of joy when playing one-twos, and the space could enable him to have the time he requires to make sliding passes through the vulnerable Mainz central defence.
Mainz to score is an interesting betting alternative, given Bayern’s defensive vulnerabilities. But, we still fully expect Kompany’s side to book their spot in the next round.
Mainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction, Betting Tip
- Pick: Mainz Over 3.5 Corners
- Odds: 2.35 (22Bet)
As we have mentioned, Bayern’s defence often gives their opponents a chance in the final third. Therefore, Mainz to register over 3.5 corners could be an interesting football prediction on Wednesday.
The hosts have had over 8.5 corners in 63% of their matches in the Bundesliga this season, and win an average of 4.63 corners per match in the German top-flight. Interestingly, Bayern have also conceded at least an average of two corners per match in their league outings in the 2024/25 campaign.
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