Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview, Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips 12.03.2025

• Date and Time: Wednesday, March 12, 2025, 21:00 GMT+1
• Venue: Civitas Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview and Team News

Atlético Madrid News

Atlético Madrid fell to Getafe (2-1) despite Julian Álvarez giving them the lead with a 75th-minute penalty. Both teams struggled to create chances, but Diego Simeone’s men showed complacency. 

Everything changed when Ángel Correa was sent off for a harsh foul in the 88th minute, and Los Azulones capitalised almost immediately to equalise. Simeone’s men lost their composure, allowing Mauro Arambarri to net the winner in stoppage time. They haven’t been defeated by Getafe since 2011.

It’s not the first time Atlético have lost 2-1 after taking a 1-0 lead. Simeone’s squad were leading by the 32nd minute as Julian Álvarez opened the scoring against Real Madrid, but Los Blancos came back in the second half. 

As has often been the case in the past, Atlético Madrid decided to use a low block, which proved to be ineffective against Real. 

Tough defeat, but we have a big week ahead. Let’s go for it all together! ❤️🤍 pic.twitter.com/L1Vr4GuB06

— Atlético de Madrid (@atletienglish) March 9, 2025

According to Relevo, Diego Simeone is working to extend the contracts of Rodrigo De Paul and Ángel Correa, but talks have stalled. Agustín Jímenez represents both players. As it stands, Atlético could either sell both players this Summer or let them leave for free in 2026.

Atlético Madrid predicted line-up vs Real Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Galán, Le Normand, Giménez, Molina; Lino, Barrios, Llorente, Simeone; Álvarez, Griezmann.

Real Madrid Team News

Real started slowly but secured a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano at the Bernabéu. The rivals troubled Madrid’s defense on the counter but failed to capitalise. Aurélien Tchouaméni was left alone to defend the counter, which he did successfully. 

It was Kylian Mbappé who came to the rescue. He scored the first goal after half an hour, profiting from Vallecano’s disorganised rest defence after a counter-attack. Real Madrid’s opponents struggled to regroup, and conceded again as Vinicius Jr scored four minutes later.

Newly elected RFEF President Rafael Louzán has kept his promise to include Real in the Referee Committee. Structural changes are expected, with the first meeting scheduled for this week. 

Rüdiger sat out the Rayo Vallecano match due to illness but is expected to return for Wednesday’s Champions League derby. 

Real Madrid predicted line-up vs Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Lunin; Mendy, Rüdiger, Asencio, Valverde; Bellingham, Tchouaméni, Modrić, Rodrygo; Vinicius, Mbappé.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head Statistics

The Madrid Derby is one of the most intense in the world, splitting the Spanish capital into two factions. However, this tie is not in LaLiga, but in the Champions League. 

These two rivals have not played each other in the CL since the 2016-2017 semi-finals. 

🤍 TEAM 🤍 pic.twitter.com/wiCAT8BX2a

— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) March 10, 2025

Their last match was a week ago, in the first leg of the Round of 16. Real Madrid defeated Atletico 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu, as Diego Simeone opted for a low block. 

In the preceding three clashes between these sides, there were three draws. Atlético’s last victory against Real dates back a year. The former won in overtime 4-2. 

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Player Focus

Atlético Madrid are going through a difficult phase lately. Julian Álvarez remains the most reliable player of the club. Despite his squad losing in the last two matches, he was the one to score the team’s only goal. 

His runs in behind the defence, no matter if a starter or a substitute, inevitably end up in goals. Nicknamed ‘The Spider’ by Atlético fans, he’s already justified his 100M price tag, even after not settling in initially.

Final touches ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/QXNACI1ktv

— Atlético de Madrid (@atletienglish) March 9, 2025

As for Real Madrid, the focus will be on Kylian Mbappé. He struggled to make an impact in last week’s derby, leading to the Bernabéu’s anger directed at him. 

However, he repented himself by scoring a vital goal against Rayo Vallecano this weekend. Although Carlo Ancelotti defended him in front of the press, Mbappé will have to step up at the Metropolitano on Wednesday.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Analysis

Atlético tried to implement a low block to restrain Real Madrid’s assault, but it’s unlikely they’ll repeat a similar strategy. 

With the support of the Metropolitano and being one goal behind, the hosts are expected to take more risks. The stadium has seen their team come back from an unfavourable score before.

😁🫂😁 pic.twitter.com/Ci5PfM08GU

— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) March 9, 2025

Real are anticipated to rely on Tchouaméni to stop counter-attacks, while looking for Mbappé and Vinicius Jr in the final third.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction

• Prediction: Real Madrid to win
• Odds: 2.54 (22Bet)
• Score Prediction: Atlético Madrid 0-1 Real Madrid

Atlético often struggle mentally against the guests, retreating as they did in their previous fixture. On top of that, the 2-1 defeat against Getafe on Sunday is likely to force Simeone to focus on the domestic league instead. 

Since his team will be forced to play with more risk, the threat of Real Madrid countering the home side’s encounters is much higher.

Atlético are winless in their last four derbies. A streak unlikely to end on Wednesday.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Tip

• Pick: Kylian Mbappé to score
• Odds: 2.47 (22Bet)

Kylian Mbappé’s pace has been a key asset throughout his career, and he’ll look to exploit Atlético’s slower defenders, like Le Normand and Giménez. He’ll face a team forced to take risks, giving him the chance to prove himself to the crowd.

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