- Date and Time: Saturday, December 7, 2024. 14:30 GMT+1
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany
Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli Preview
Bayer Leverkusen
Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen have recently bounced back to form, winning each of their last two and going five without a defeat. The champions will be the heavy favorites when making a Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli prediction this weekend. Die Werkself have no fresh injury concerns, but they will again be without Amine Adli and Victor Boniface.
Therefore, Patrik Schick is likely to deputize in the number nine role. Leverkusen’s forward line has flourished in recent weeks despite being without key strikers, scoring seven goals in their last two.
0⃣4⃣ consecutive wins! 👏@NathanTella_11 pic.twitter.com/uX5ERwW6h8
— Bayer 04 Leverkusen (@bayer04_en) December 5, 2024
They netted twice with an xG of 0.91 last weekend against Union Berlin. Overall, Die Werkself are outperforming their xG metric of 18.29 after scoring 21 goals from open play.
However, there would still be concerns surrounding their defensive play. Leverkusen have conceded an xGA of 9.88 and allowed 14 goals from open play this season. It’s unlikely that Alonso will sway away from the 3-4-2-1 formation that has served the team so well over the last two seasons.
St. Pauli
St. Pauli’s main aim for the season remains survival, and colossal confidence would have been gained from their recent outings. They won two of their last three to move a point above the bottom three spots.
Defensively, they have an excellent record, with their tally of 15 goals against being the second-best in the bottom half of the standings.
Gave it all we had and matched them. 🤎🤍 On we go!#fcsp pic.twitter.com/wS87GOl5DR
— FC St. Pauli English (@fcstpauli_EN) November 10, 2024
Overall, they have conceded 12 goals from open play this season, with an xGA of 14.89. However, they have fallen short from corners, allowing three goals from an xGA of 2.32.
Lacking quality in the final third could ultimately hinder their chances of safety this season. St. Pauli have scored just ten goals from 96 shots, with their xG of 9.84 being among the lowest in the Bundesliga.
They’re also one of a handful of sides yet to score from a setpiece this season. Their injury list is worth considering this weekend, as they’ll be without eleven first-team players. The notable absences include Scott Banks, Karol Mets, and Morgan Guilavogui.
Bet hereBayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli Prediction
- Pick: Bayer Leverkusen to Win
- Odds: 1.22 (22Bet)
- Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 St. Pauli
This would have been a daunting assignment for St. Pauli, even at full strength. Therefore, the number of players they will be without this weekend is alarming.
It’s also a significant concern for the visitors that Leverkusen appear to have hit form in the final third of the field. St. Pauli’s excellent defensive record will be put to the test on Saturday.
However, Leverkusen’s quality means we can expect them to comfortably overcome this challenge at BayArena and close the gap on the top spot in the Bundesliga standings.
Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli Prediction, Betting Tip
- Pick: Patrik Schick to Score
- Odds: 1.96 (22Bet)
Patrik Schick will look to seize the advantage when playing through the middle in Boniface’s absence, and his scoring record this season speaks for itself. Schick has already scored five in ten Bundesliga matches and has accumulated an xG of 3.32 from his 4.72 shots per 90. The striker could make his mark once again this weekend.
𝘼𝙣𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 assist 🅰️@grimaldo35 pic.twitter.com/8pdrO1gdkd
— Bayer 04 Leverkusen (@bayer04_en) December 4, 2024
Alternatively, Leverkusen to win over 9.5 corners could be an interesting angle against a defensive-minded St. Pauli, who will look to sit back and play on the counter-attack.
Leverkusen have the highest average of corners per home match this season, averaging ten per fixture. They’ve had over 9.5 corners in 67% of their matches at BayArena.
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