- Date and Time: Tuesday, January 7, 2025. 20:00 GMT+1
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, England
| Odds via 22bet | |
| Arsenal vs Newcastle | 07.01.25, 20:00 GMT+1 |
| Arsenal odds | 1.71 |
| Newcastle odds | 4.54 |
| Draw | 4.04 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 1.69/2.18 |
Arsenal vs Newcastle Preview
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta’s hunt for a second trophy at Arsenal continues in the EFL Cup on Tuesday. The team have two important domestic cup matches this week, with Man United travelling to North London on Sunday.
However, this semi-final clash with Newcastle could present Arsenal with their best opportunity to win silverware in 2024-25. The Gunners’ attacking threat from open play continues to be a challenge. Their defensive approach against Brighton failed to secure a victory as the points were shared.
🔴 𝗠𝗔𝗧𝗖𝗛𝘿𝘼𝙔 ⚪️
🆚 Newcastle United
🕗 8pm (UK)
🏆 Carabao Cup
🏟 Emirates Stadium pic.twitter.com/d9ChsQk6Ck— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 7, 2025
Arsenal’s issues in this regard are evident after scoring 27 goals from an xG of 28.12 from open play. Meanwhile, the team’s top scorer is Kai Havertz, with seven goals netted in 2024-25.
Defensively, there are a few issues to address, as the Gunners have conceded eleven goals from an xGA of 14.92. They will need to be wary with their possession-based game against a counter-attacking rival on Tuesday.
| Recent Form (all competitions, most recent first) | D-W-W-W-W |
| Key Players to Watch | Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Jesus |
| Team Strengths | Dynamite from set-pieces, and excellent defensively |
| Team Weaknesses | Struggle to break down teams in open play |
| Injuries and Suspensions | Kai Havertz (Illness) Bukayo Saka (Thigh) Ben White (Knee) Takehiro Tomiyasu (Knee) |
Newcastle
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle could be one of the most dangerous opponents to play against at present. They’ve been thriving in front of goal throughout the festive period. The visiting team come into this semi-final first leg after winning five on the bounce, and they’ve scored 15 goals across during that time.
Despite that, Newcastle are still narrowly underperforming in terms of an xGA of 28.74 from open play, having scored 28 goals. But they’ve out-performed their xGs in each of their last five Premier League matches. Alexander Isak has been the man of the moment for the club, netting his 13th goal of the season in Saturday’s win over Tottenham.
Eddie Howe on Alexander Isak’s form:
“He will naturally [feel like he will score every time he goes on the pitch], when you are on the run of goalscoring games that he is. The team is creating for him, the team is playing in a really good way for Alex and others. Alex is playing… pic.twitter.com/nmpJt5zUnS
— Newcastle United (@NUFC) January 6, 2025
Defensively, Newcastle have also looked back to their old self in recent weeks, limiting rivals to just one goal in their last five matches. A big reason for confidence is also their solid nature from corners. They’ve conceded only once from a corner xGA of 2.35 this term.
| Recent Form (all competitions, most recent first) | W-W-W-W-W |
| Key Players to Watch | Alexander Isak, Sandro Tonali |
| Team Strengths | Midfielders are excellent in and out of possession, Isak needs few chances to find the net |
| Team Weaknesses | Can be vulnerable when the ball is turned over |
| Injuries and Suspensions | Callum Wilson (Thigh) Nick Pope (Knee) |
Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Statistics
Newcastle will take positives from their recent results against Arsenal, having won two of the last three. However, the latter have not been beaten in their previous 12 home matches against the Magpies. Over that period, the Gunners have recorded eleven wins, with their only draw happening back in January 2023.
Bet hereArsenal vs Newcastle Player Focus
Arsenal’s lack of dynamism in the final third has been evident throughout the season. However, they’ve looked more lively in open play in recent weeks following Gabriel Jesus’ recall.
The striker has scored three in 17 Premier League matches this season and netted an excellent hat-trick in the previous round against Crystal Palace. Jesus’ movement has been a focal point of Arsenal’s attack in recent weeks. He’ll need to be at his very best to stretch a Newcastle backline of Dan Burn and Fabian Schär on Tuesday.
Jesus’ ability to make runs into the channels frees up space in the box for Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard. Both wingers will need to be aggressive if Arsenal are to take a first-leg advantage back to St. James’ Park in a few weeks.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Tactical Analysis
It’s likely this match will follow a similar pattern to the matches between the sides over the last two seasons. Newcastle forced Arsenal to have possession of the ball and posed the question of whether they could break them down.
That was evident in Newcastle’s 1-0 win earlier this term when they had 36% of the possession compared to Arsenal’s 64%. However, it is a tactic that sparked rewards for Howe’s side. They won the game and looked more dangerous when they were on the attack.
This Premier League match shows just how much Arsenal struggles to break down compact defences. They mustered just a single shot on target in 90 minutes.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction
- Football pick: The Draw
- Odds: 4.04 (22Bet)
- Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Newcastle
The draw looks like a solid Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction in this first leg. The visitors boast excellent quality on the counter-attack, and their recent scoring sequence means that we expect them to find the net at least once on Tuesday.
Arsenal will have the home-field advantage, and their record against Newcastle at the Emirates is hard to ignore.
However, they’ll be without important goal-scoring options such as Saka and Havertz. This limits the number of avenues as to where the goals will come from, as Martinelli and Trossard have failed to step up when required recently.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Betting Tip
- Football Pick: Over 3.5 Cards
- Odds: 1.70 (22Bet)
Matches between these sides have been aggressive affairs in recent seasons, and the tensions have often boiled over, given the close nature of the teams. That was evident earlier in the campaign when over 6.5 yellows were awarded in the match at St. James’ Park.
Over 3.5 cards looks like a solid angle, as Newcastle and Arsenal average 2.1 and 2.15 cards per game, respectively.
As a scorer angle, Isak looks like the prominent play. The Swedish international has scored six in his last four appearances in the league. He has now netted 13 goals from an xG of 12.10 in this Premier League.
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