Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid clash in the biggest fixture of La Liga 2026/27 so far. Diego Simeone’s side are bidding to upset José Mourinho’s men at the Estadio Metropolitano.

Positive signs for Atlético Madrid ahead of the derby

Following some unconvincing displays, Atlético Madrid have hit form over the past week, seeing off Real Sociedad 3-0 and Osasuna 4-0. Recent signing Jonathan David scored and assisted against Los Rojillos on Wednesday.

David’s display should earn him a start in the derby. Fellow forwards Julián Álvarez and Alexander Sørloth are still fitness doubts, while Pablo Barrios is also carrying an injury.

Simeone’s tactics have evolved as the season has progressed. He looks likely to use a 3-4-2-1 structure in this game, which helps get the best out of Alejandro Grimaldo on the left flank. The Spanish international registered eight goals and eight assists in 29 Bundesliga outings for Bayer Leverkusen last term.

Atlético Madrid predicted lineup vs Real Madrid (3-4-2-1): Oblak; Hancko, Romero, Pubill; Simeone, Llorente, Koke, Grimaldo; Lookman, Baena; David.

Mbappé firing as Real Madrid get set for biggest test yet

For the second time already this season, Carlos Espí came on to net a late winner when Real Madrid triumphed 3-2 away to Elche on Tuesday. Despite that, the 21-year-old stands little chance of dislodging Kylian Mbappé from this lineup.

Mbappé is already on course to become one of Real Madrid’s all-time top scorers. He has struck eight times in seven competitive outings for Los Blancos this term and has registered an assist in each of his previous two appearances.

There are no fresh selection issues for the visitors, but Éder Militão, Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy are sidelined due to injuries. Jude Bellingham and Denzel Dumfries should both be recalled, after only making the bench in midweek.

Real Madrid predicted lineup vs Atlético Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Dumfries, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius; Mbappé.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Both teams to score
  • Odds: 1.42 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Atlético Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid
  • 22Bet Booking Code: 7E3GZ

Key stats:

  • All three Madrid derbies last season saw both teams score.
  • There have been goals for each team in four of the previous five meetings at the Estadio Metropolitano.
  • Five of Real Madrid’s seven encounters this term have produced goals for each side.

Real Madrid are the favourites, but they’ve only kept one clean sheet in seven competitive outings back under the guidance of Mourinho. With three new signings in their first-choice back four, their defence has looked vulnerable in virtually every game.

Atleti have the firepower to exploit that. They have scored seven goals across their past 100 minutes of football, so momentum is building for Los Rojiblancos heading into this clash. Backing both teams to score is a safe pick, and it has landed in nine of the previous 10 meetings between these clubs.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Atlético Madrid to win or draw
  • Odds: 1.889 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: RYGGZ

Backing Atlético Madrid to win or draw offers value. The Metropolitano is a fortress for Simeone’s side, who have avoided defeat in 86% of their home league games since the start of last term.

Since the beginning of 2024, only three of the 10 meetings between these clubs have been won by Real Madrid in regulation time.

Verdict: Both teams to score (1.42) — Atlético Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid