Lille welcome Troyes to the Decathlon Arena-Stade Pierre-Mauroy for Ligue 1 Matchday 4, with the hosts unbeaten on seven points and ESTAC arriving after conceding six goals last weekend.

Lille Unbeaten After Taking Seven Points From Nine

Lille have started strongly with a 2-0 win at Angers, a 2-2 draw against PSG and a 1-0 victory at Toulouse, giving them seven points and only two goals conceded. Hákon Haraldsson and Dilane Bakwa scored as Les Dogues built a 2-0 lead, with Olivier Giroud supplying both assists, before conceding twice after the 90th minute. Ayase Ueda then came from the bench to score the 73rd-minute winner at Toulouse.

The hosts' only notable absentee is Hamza Igamane, out with a knee injury.

Lille predicted lineup vs Troyes (4-2-3-1): Özer; Santos, Ngoy, Alexsandro, Perraud; André, Bentaleb; Mbappe, Haraldsson, Sahraoui; Giroud.

Troyes’ Six-Goal Collapse Exposes the Main Weakness

Troyes have four points from three matches, but their defensive numbers changed dramatically with Sunday's 6-2 home defeat to Strasbourg. Stéphane Dumont's side had previously kept a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw with Paris FC before beating Lorient 2-1, where goalkeeper Patrick Beach made four saves and prevented 1.45 goals.

Antoine Mille remains important after scoring against Strasbourg and assisting Lucas Maronnier at Lorient, but left-back Ismaël Boura is sidelined with a hip injury.

Troyes predicted lineup vs Lille (4-2-3-1): Beach; Maronnier, Monfrayi, Diaz, Ouzenadji; Diop, Mille; Ifnaoui, Karim, Picard; Ripart.

Lille vs Troyes Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Lille to Win
  • Odds: 1.38 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Lille 3-1 Troyes
  • 22Bet Booking Code: NNP3L

Key stats:

  • Lille collected seven points from their opening three Ligue 1 matches.
  • Les Dogues have conceded only two league goals, both after the 90th minute against PSG.
  • Troyes conceded six goals at home to Strasbourg in their latest match.

Lille to win at 1.38 is the safe tip. Davide Ancelotti's team are already three matches unbeaten, including a point against PSG and two away wins without conceding. Troyes face an even tougher defensive examination only seven days after Strasbourg scored six times at Stade de l'Aube.

Recent H2H history also favours Lille. Their last competitive meeting at this stadium ended in a 5-1 home victory in January 2023, with the hosts scoring three times before the 50th minute. Les Dogues’ 1.38 odds represent a 72% implied probability.

Lille vs Troyes Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
  • Odds: 1.68 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: T463L

Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 carries an implied probability of approximately 60%, and Troyes' latest defensive performance creates the value. Their 2-6 loss against Strasbourg produced eight goals, with ESTAC leading 1-0 after nine minutes before conceding six between the 40th and 92nd minutes.

Lille have enough attacking variety to exploit those problems. Hákon Haraldsson and Dilane Bakwa both scored against PSG, Giroud supplied two assists, and Ueda came off the bench to decide the 1-0 victory at Toulouse. Troyes have also scored four goals across their last two matches, so the total does not depend entirely on Les Dogues.

Verdict: Lille to Win (1.38) - Lille 3-1 Troyes.