Portugal welcome Norway to the Estádio do Dragão for Nations League Matchday 4, with the hosts protecting a perfect group record against a Norwegian side coming off consecutive defeats.

Portugal’s Attack Is Flying After Six Points on the Road

Portugal could hardly enter this match with better momentum. After beating Wales 1-0, Jorge Jesus’ team defeated Norway 2-1 in Oslo and then produced their best attacking performance of the window with Thursday’s 2-4 victory away to Denmark.

Their Denmark game was particularly impressive: Portugal attempted 19 shots, put 10 on target and generated 2.09 xG. João Cancelo, Gonçalo Ramos, Vitinha and João Félix all scored. Portugal also beat Norway three days earlier.

Portugal predicted lineup vs Norway (4-3-3): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Palhinha, Rúben Neves, Vitinha; Pedro Neto, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix.

Norway Have Scored in Every Nations League Match

Norway's results have deteriorated after their opening victory over Denmark. They lost 1-2 at home to Portugal before suffering another 2-1 defeat against Wales on Thursday.

Torbjørn Heggem's red card immediately after half-time significantly changed the Wales match and leaves Norway with a defensive concern.

Their attacking threat, however, remains obvious. Erling Haaland scored against Portugal in Oslo, while Oscar Bobb struck against Wales, meaning Norway have scored in all three Nations League matches.

Norway predicted lineup vs Portugal (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Østigård, Ajer, Møller Wolfe; Berge, Berg, Ødegaard; Bobb, Haaland, Nusa.

Portugal vs Norway Prediction

Safe Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.42 (22Bet)
Correct score prediction: Portugal 3-1 Norway
22Bet Booking Code: M9NBV

Key stats:

  • Portugal have won all three Nations League matches, scoring seven goals.
  • Norway have scored in all three group matches but conceded twice in each of their last two.
  • Portugal's 2-4 win over Denmark generated six goals and 3.22 combined xG.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.42 is the safe tip. Portugal's attack is operating at an excellent level: after scoring twice in Oslo, they generated 19 shots, 10 on target and 2.09 xG against Denmark.

Norway can contribute to the total rather than requiring Portugal to score three themselves. Haaland already breached this defence in Oslo, and Bobb's goal against Wales continued Norway's perfect scoring record in this Nations League campaign. At the other end, Solbakken's side have now allowed four goals across consecutive defeats.

Portugal vs Norway Prediction, Value Tip

Value Tip: Portugal to Win
Odds: 1.62 (22Bet)
22Bet Booking Code: 81QBV

Portugal to win is attractive because the hosts have already proven they can beat this opponent away from home. Their 1-2 victory in Oslo on September 27 came through goals from Félix and Ramos, and Portugal now return to home soil.

The scheduling is demanding for both teams, but their trajectories are very different. Portugal have won three from three, whereas Norway enter after back-to-back 2-1 defeats and must reorganise defensively. Portugal's deeper attacking options and home advantage make 1.62 an appealing step up from the goals selection.

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals (1.42) - Portugal 3-1 Norway.