Turkey are still waiting for their first point in the Nations League. They go in search of it at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara against Italy on Monday evening.

Progress for Italy as Mancini starts to make his mark

Having missed out on qualification for the past three World Cups, Italy have turned back to their former coach Roberto Mancini. The 61-year-old would have been encouraged by his team’s last two displays, with centre-back Alessandro Bastoni’s goal sealing a point away to France on Friday.

Bastoni is one of the key figures that Mancini is looking to build around. At the other end of the pitch, Pio Esposito is the big emerging talent. The 21-year-old striker has scored twice in five Serie A appearances for Inter this term.

Nicolò Barella and Gianluca Mancini may rotate into the side in Bologna. Antonio Vergara is also pushing for a first international start, but Moise Kean has pulled out of the squad due to an injury.

Italy predicted lineup vs Turkey (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Fagioli, Frattesi; Vergara, Esposito, Cambiaghi.

Fresh selection issues for injury-hit Turkey

This has been a really difficult international break for Turkey, who are struggling with many injured players. Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are the two most notable absentees from this squad because of fitness reasons.

A 3-0 defeat to Belgium did further damage to their hopes of avoiding relegation last time out. They’ll also have to cope without the key attacking duo of Barış Alper Yılmaz and Arda Güler in this game, with both players suspended and having already left the squad.

It’ll therefore be a second-string forward line that takes to the field, with Deniz Gül potentially leading the line. He has scored twice in 13 international appearances so far.

Turkey predicted lineup vs Italy (3-4-2-1): Çakır; Kabak, Demiral, Çelik; Kadıoğlu, Özcan, Yüksek, Elmalı; Akgün, Aktürkoğlu; Gül.

Italy vs Turkey Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Italy to win
  • Odds: 1.43 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Italy 2-0 Turkey
  • 22Bet Booking Code: FFX9Y

Key stats:

  • Since failing to reach the World Cup, Italy have won three of their five matches.
  • Turkey have lost five of their past six internationals.
  • The visitors have conceded 2.67 goals per game on average in the 2026/27 Nations League.

Italy are a safe pick to win this game at odds of 1.43. They were 3-0 up after just 27 minutes when these sides met in Bursa a week ago. Turkey went on to lose the match 4-1, with their goal coming from Yılmaz, who won’t feature in the return clash.

Gli Azzurri will be highly motivated to right the wrongs of a miserable World Cup qualifying campaign. They’ve only lost one of their seven matches in 2026 in regulation time. The hosts will be too strong for a Turkey side who have conceded 13 times in six competitive outings since the start of June.

Italy vs Turkey Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Turkey to score under 0.5 goals
  • Odds: 2.44 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: L589Y

Without Yılmaz, Güler, Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, Turkey are a much weaker attacking force. Those players have scored 39 international goals between them.

Vincenzo Montella’s side have failed to net in four of their previous six fixtures. Against an Italy defence that did well to restrict France to just one goal last time out, backing the visitors to score under 0.5 goals is a value pick.

Verdict: Italy to win (1.43) — Italy 2-0 Turkey