| Odds via 22Bet | |
| Portugal vs Denmark | Sunday, March 23, 2025, 20:45 GMT+1 |
| Portugal odds | 1.58 |
| Denmark odds | 5.65 |
| Draw | 4.12 |
| Over/Under | Total 2.5: 1.88/1.91 |
| Betting Bonus | Up to 122 $/€ |
Although Portugal shared possession with Denmark in the first leg, they were less clinical in the final third, resulting in a 1-0 defeat earlier this week. The team only recorded 0.51 xG from 8 shots.
A recurring criticism in recent years has been the automatic inclusion of Cristiano Ronaldo as a striker, despite his underwhelming performances. He took two shots in the penalty area but frequently disrupted the team’s counter-attacks. Ronaldo registered 30 touches, but only three were inside the penalty area.
Bernardo Silva did not feature until late in the game and his absence was felt. Portugal struggled to break down Denmark’s compact block, leaving all four forwards without answers.
Nuno Tavares remains sidelined.
Portugal predicted line-up vs Denmark (4-3-3): Costa; Mendes, Veiga, Dias, Dalot; Neves, Vitinha, Leão; Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, Ronaldo.
Denmark’s 1-0 win over Portugal, secured by a Rasmus Højlund goal, was their first victory over Portugal since 2011. Christian Eriksen missed a first-half penalty, but Højlund secured the win with a goal in the final 20 minutes.
Denmark registered over 20 shots, accumulating a non-penalty xG of 1.78, highlighting their dominance despite an even share of possession.
The win was Denmark’s first since September 2024, when they beat Serbia (2-0). A key factor in Denmark’s victory was Jannik Vestergaard’s performance, playing in an advanced role as a left center-back. In defense, he avoided rash challenges, while in possession, he initiated counter-attacks as the de facto leader of the backline.
Mikkel Damsgaard and Mads Roerslev are sidelined due to injury.
Denmark Predicted line-up vs Portugal (4-2-3-1): Schmeichel; Mæhle, Vestergaard, Andersen, Kristensen; Nørgaard, Hjulmand; Lindstrøm, Eriksen, Isaksen; Biereth.
Bet hereAlthough Portugal remain the favorite due to their FIFA ranking and depth of talent, Denmark’s 1-0 lead puts them in a strong position to reach the Nations League semifinals.
Denmark’s counter-attacking approach, built on a compact and flexible defensive block, is the ideal strategy against Portugal’s talented but disorganized frontline.
Højlund did not start in the first leg, but that is unlikely to happen again—given the lack of competition, he is expected to start.
With Roberto Martínez still uncertain about Portugal’s tactical identity and Denmark holding a 1-0 lead, the Danes are likely to sit back and invite pressure.
Given Portugal’s struggles to form a cohesive attacking structure, the advantage lies with Denmark. Portugal must go all-out at home, which plays into Denmark’s hands. Højlund could find himself unmarked in the box if Portugal’s center-backs push up to press Denmark’s defensive block.
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