The Netherlands host Serbia at Philips Stadion on October 4, with a victory potentially sending them to the top if Greece lose. Serbia are still searching for their first win after three consecutive defeats.

Netherlands Chase the First Clean Sheet

The Netherlands are still looking for a clean sheet. In this Nations League window, they have conceded 1.33 goals per match on average (4 goals in 3 matches). The game against Greece, played on October 1, was their 11th match without a clean sheet.

In all 3 matches in this window, Dutch players have played with dominant possession - 54% vs Germany, 67% vs Serbia, and 71% vs Greece. However, the metrics also highlight defensive shortcomings in each of those matches.

For example, Greece had 2 big chances during 90 minutes, and both of them were turned into goals. Also, Germany had only 2 shots on target, of which 1 was turned into a goal.

Netherlands predicted lineup vs Serbia (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Timber J., Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Timber Q., Veerman; Summerville, Til, van Bommel; Meerdink.

Serbia Still Look for the First Win This Season

Serbia enter this match without a win in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League. To be precise, they haven’t won a match in the last five matches. During this window, Serbia have conceded exactly 2 goals in each match, yet scored only 2 goals during 270 minutes in the competition.

Serbia chase goal-scoring opportunities through counter-attacks, which is why their ball possession was extremely low in all the matches - 26% vs Germany, 33% against the Netherlands, and 39% against Greece.

Serbia’s main problem is the left-back position; Filip Kostić is naturally a left-winger, which is why the coach Veljko Paunović decided to play with 5 defenders in the last match against Germany. The same strategy is predicted for this match - poor possession & quick counter-attacks with Andrija Živković and Dušan Tadić on the wings.

Predicted lineup vs Netherlands (5-4-1): Petrović,; Kostić, Babić, Gudelj, Eraković, Nedeljković; Živković, Maksimović, Dzodić, Tadić; Jović.

Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
  • Odds: 1.41 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia
  • 22Bet Booking Code: E7Q4V

Key stats:

  • Netherlands has conceded 1 or more goals in the last 11 matches.
  • Serbia have conceded 6 goals in three group matches (2 per match).
  • The first Nations League match in this window between these two ended with 2-1 victory for the Netherlands

Over 2.5 goals looks like a realistic outcome, primarily due to Serbia’s defensive struggles, with 14 goals conceded across their last five matches (2.8 per game). The Netherlands have averaged exactly two goals per game over the same period, while conceding at least once in all five, including twice against Greece in the last match played on October 1.

The first meeting between the two sides also produced three goals, with the Netherlands creating 2.75 xG from 25 shots.

Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value tip: Netherlands to win and under 3.5 goals
  • Odds: 2.29 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: ZFAKV

Although the Netherlands are clear favourites, a big-margin victory does not look likely. They have won once and drawn twice in this Nations League campaign, scoring five and conceding four goals, with none of their three matches producing a margin of more than one goal.

Serbia's recent record also points towards a controlled scoreline, with eight of their last 10 matches finishing under 3.5 goals. Netherlands have scored more than twice in only two of their last 10 games, and just once in their last five, against Tunisia on June 26, further reducing the case for a heavy home win.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals - Netherlands 2-1 Serbia