Relegation-threatened Leganes will have the home field advantage this weekend as they chase an unlikely third win on the bounce at Estadio Municipal de Butarque. However, the odds will be stacked against them, as they will need to defend much better than they have throughout the campaign.
Typically deploying a 4-2-3-1 formation, Leganes has struggled to maintain defensive compactness, often leaving gaps for opponents to exploit. That is evidenced by their xGA of 11.57. Although, it is worth mentioning that they have restricted opponents to just nine goals from open play.
Recent performances will give them reason for confidence, including when last seen against Sevilla, restricting their rivals to an xGA of just 0.54 in a 1-0 win. Leganes have been clinical in the final third throughout this season, scoring ten goals from an xG of 6.31.
However, the hosts will need to contend with two key defensive absences this weekend, with holding midfielder Renato Tapia out until next month, and defender Enric Franquesa also sidelined.
Carlo Ancelotti is still experimenting with his Real Madrid side at this stage of the season, as Los Blancos continue to search for a way to get the best out of the trio of Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, and Vinicius Jr.
However, signs were promising before the international break, with Bellingham and Vinicius both influential in a 4-0 home win over Osasuna. But Mbappe’s performances continue to make negative headlines in the Madrid region.
Ancelotti will also have defensive headaches to address this weekend, with Éder Militão ruled out for the remainder of the season and David Alaba and Dani Carvajal no nearer returning to action.
Despite this, Real’s xGA of 12.35 is still being outperformed, conceding just ten goals from open play. Rodrygo’s absence will also hand an opportunity to Brazilian Endrick this weekend in the right-hand position of the forward three in the 4-3-3 formation.
Bet hereReal Madrid remain unbeaten on the road this season, despite being more work-man-like than expansive in their style of play.
A similar performance is once again likely this weekend against a Leganes side that have typically struggled to fire in the final third. Leganes have scored just ten goals from 80 shots in open play, and they give up a high-quality number of chances, evident by their xGA of 17.23.
Real’s dominant players in the final third won’t need much encouragement to try their luck, and Jude Bellingham’s lung-busting runs from midfield could cut open the Leganes defence this weekend.
Mbappé is yet to fire in La Liga with Real Madrid, but he has still registered seven goal involvements in eleven appearances. He could prove to be the provider once again this weekend and add to his one assist in the league. Mbappé has averaged 1.23 key passes per game, and has an xA of 1.38 in La Liga.
The disciplinary record of the visitors could also make for an appealing Leganes vs Real Madrid prediction this weekend. We like the chances of under 2.5 Real Madrid yellow cards.
Los Blancos have averaged a league-low of one yellow per match in their away fixtures, and they are yet to be involved in an away match that has seen over 5.5 cards.
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