Vincent Kompany has taken to life in Munich like a duck to water. Bayern are the highest scorers in the Bundesliga by a commanding margin and could move three points clear at the summit with a win on Saturday.
Bayern’s possession-based 4-2-3-1 will once again be deployed by Kompany, with João Palhinha and Joshua Kimmich forming the double-pivot in the middle of the park. However, it’s in the wide areas that Bayern are excelling, with Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry having impressed in the opening months.
The Bavarian giants are operating at a strong rate in terms of xG, outperforming the metric of 22.55 with 27 goals from open play. Their biggest question to answer will be in a defensive regard, as they are allowing an xGA of 4.45 and have conceded seven goals from open play.
Continued issues in the right-back position hang over the team, while the form of Dayot Upamecano could see Eric Dier handed a start at the Allianz Arena on Saturday.
Bet hereUnion Berlin will present an interesting challenge for Bayern this weekend after hitting form in their last three, picking up two victories. A back three has been used throughout the season, with both 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-3 systems deployed.
The former is likely going to be in operation this weekend, with Union using a back five when out of position to cut out the space of Bayern’s wide players. Their xGA of 4.19 is being outperformed after conceding just three times from open play.
However, more spark will be required in the final third. Union has accumulated an xG of just 3.73, netting three times, from open play. It could be argued that their defensive approach may see them become a sitting duck against a Bayern side that won’t stop attacking on Saturday.
Life will be made slightly more difficult for Union this weekend, with Ivan Prtajin and Rani Khedira missing in the midfield area. However, Lucas Tousart’s return is a timely one in central midfield.
Bayern’s dominant forward line have netted 29 goals already this season, and they could gain further joy against Union. The visitors will sit in and play for a 0-0 draw, which is the very best that they can likely expect to achieve, having the third-worst attack in the Bundesliga.
However, the game could quickly get away from the visitors this weekend. A key stat before making a Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin prediction is the timing of Bayern goals this season.
The Bavarians have netted five in the opening 15 minutes of matches from an impressive xG of 3.85. They have only scored more goals in the minute bracket between 48-60. An early goal is even more likely given that Union will be forced into changes in the middle of the park.
A handicap bet is an interesting alternative, but a straightforward win bet avoids the risk of Union’s defence holding out Bayern for an extended period.
Harry Kane has started life under Kompany excellently. The England captain has already netted nine goals in eight appearances from an xG of 6.98. His goal involvements in the Bundesliga this term already stand at 14, and he is averaging an impressive 4.31 shots per game.
Alternatively, Joshua Kimmich could be an interesting angle to register an assist. The holding midfielder has already set up two goals this season, and has an xA of 2.77. The German international makes an average of 2.75 key passes per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.
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