| Odds via 22bet | |
| Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid | September 29, 21:00 GMT+1 |
| Atlético de Madrid odds | 2.8 |
| Real Madrid odds | 2.464 |
| Draw | 3.44 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 1.71/2.13 |
The Madrid Derby is not just a match; it’s a spectacle that splits the city of Madrid into two fervent halves, each backing their team with unmatched passion.
Each year, the entire country of Spain watches as the streets of Madrid are filled with horns blaring and passionate debates. This year is no exception, with the derby scheduled barely a month after the season’s start.
One major factor that sets this match apart is Atlético Madrid’s significant investment during the summer transfer window, aimed at challenging Real Madrid’s dominance in the capital.
Like Real Madrid, Atlético is one of the three undefeated teams since the season kicked off. With four victories and three draws, Atlético trails Real Madrid by just two points — Atlético with 15 points, and Real Madrid in second place with 17.
The match becomes even more intriguing as it takes place at the Metropolitano Stadium, renowned across Europe for its electric atmosphere. Few games showcase the passion and rivalry like this one.
| Recent Form | WWWDW |
| Key Player to Watch | Conor Gallagher |
| Team Strengths | Strong transitions through the center, solid backline |
| Team Weaknesses | ´Lack of numbers up front, lack of wide threat |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | Pablo Barrios, Borja Garcés |
While Atlético’s season has begun on a positive note, Real Madrid’s situation is a bit more complex. The arrival of Kylian Mbappé, who shares similar areas of influence with Vinicius Jr., has caused some growing pains in the team’s attack.
Mbappé’s integration hasn’t been as smooth as anticipated, and his goal-scoring output has fallen short of expectations. He often occupies the same spaces as Vinicius, or finds himself merely running without significant impact. Additionally, his defensive contributions still require improvement.
Rodrygo, on the other hand, has often been the one to break through difficult situations, suggesting that Mbappé needs more time to find his role. Until that happens, Real Madrid may continue to face challenges.
Unfortunately for Los Blancos, Mbappé will miss the first Madrid Derby of the season due to injury. The same goes for Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Ceballos, and David Alaba.
Jesús Vallejo, who finally featured for the team against Deportivo Alavés (a 3-2 victory), made some costly mistakes that allowed Alavés to gain momentum. Despite Coach Carlo Ancelotti’s public defense of Vallejo, rumors suggest that his tenure at the club might be nearing an end, with a potential sale on the horizon.
| Recent Form | WWWWW |
| Key Player to Watch | Federico Valverde |
| Team Strengths | Individual talent, athletically gifted squad |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of scorer in the box, lack of cohesion as a team, dysfunctional pressing |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | David Alaba, Dani Ceballos, Kylian Mbappé and Brahim Díaz, Eduardo Camavinga (doubtful) |
The storied rivalry between Atlético and Real Madrid is one of the most intense in Spanish football, with a long history of fierce encounters.
Out of 235 encounters, Real Madrid has emerged victorious 116 times, Atlético has won 59 matches, while 61 derbies ended in a draw, illustrating Real Madrid’s dominance in the fixture.
In January 2024, the two clubs faced off several times, including in the Copa del Rey, where Atlético won 4-2. Just days earlier, Real Madrid had defeated Atlético in the Spanish Supercup (5-3 after extra time).
Bet hereFor Atlético, the obvious choice for the spotlight is Antoine Griezmann. While Griezmann has historically been the team’s playmaker, his form has been slower this season than previous ones.
Therefore, the player to watch is Conor Gallagher. The Englishman only joined Atlético this summer, but he has already become a fan favorite due to his tireless work rate.
Gallagher frequently wins back possession, embodying the ideal player profile manager Diego Simeone has always valued. In addition to his defensive contributions, he has also scored several goals, making him a favorite among the Atlético faithful.
For Real Madrid, the standout player is Federico Valverde. The Uruguayan midfielder has been more composed in possession in recent weeks, showing a desire to emulate former teammate Toni Kroos by controlling the team’s tempo.
Valverde also offers more athleticism than Kroos ever did, allowing him to contribute both in defense and attack. His box-to-box play will be critical if Real Madrid hopes to secure a victory on Sunday.
The last meetings between these two sides in January 2024 were filled with drama, intensity, and goals, but the upcoming match is likely to be more restrained.
Neither team will want to risk losing its current position so early in the season, especially with Real Madrid missing Mbappé. Even so, goals can be expected from both sides, particularly with Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. set to test Atlético’s backline.
In Atlético’s recent match against Celta Vigo, the team dominated the first half, which suggests that Real Madrid could suffocate under Atlético’s pressure if they fail to maintain possession.
Historically, Atlético manager Diego Simeone has favored a deep block, often without much success against Real Madrid. His tactical setup from the outset will be crucial in setting the tone for the match.
It is unlikely that this match will remain goalless. Momentum is key for both teams, and while Real Madrid may take the lead, Atlético is expected to fight back. Neither side has been solid defensively this season, which should make for a tightly contested draw.
Real Madrid tends to press early but hasn’t often found the back of the net in the first half this season. Coach Carlo Ancelotti has acknowledged this issue, noting that the team needs to improve.
Atlético, meanwhile, typically performs better at home, which should create an intense, competitive atmosphere. However, the smart bet remains on Real Madrid opening the scoring after the 31st minute.
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