| Odds via 22bet | |
| Athletic Club vs Real Madrid | December 4, 2024, 21:00 GMT+1 |
| Athletic Club odds | 3.1 |
| Real Madrid odds | 2.215 |
| Draw | 3.58 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 1.82/1.99 |
Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Club sit fourth in La Liga, six points adrift of third-placed Atlético de Madrid. The Basques haven’t lost since their October 6 defeat to Girona (2-1). This season, they’ve only been beaten three times, demonstrating the effectiveness of Valverde’s intense pressing scheme in Spain.
Athletic Club secured a hard-fought 1-2 victory against Rayo Vallecano in Vallecas on Sunday. Despite dominating large portions of the game, Los Leones had to overcome a challenging start after Randy Nteka gave the hosts the lead in the 14th minute.
However, Oihan Sancet’s brace proved decisive, turning the tide and earning all three points for the visitors.
Oihan Sancet is a fan favorite — and for a good reason. Every coach tends to have a standout player who thrives under their system, and for Valverde, that player is Sancet. Few can match his ability to follow Valverde’s intense pressing scheme, create chances, and score goals.
| Recent Form | WWWDW |
| Key Player to Watch | Oihan Sancet |
| Team Strengths | Intense pressing scheme, strong stamina, successful academy graduates |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of individual quality, lack of scoring |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | Ander Herrera |
Real Madrid are currently second in La Liga, only one point behind Barcelona. With a postponed match against Valencia, Los Blancos have a golden opportunity to reclaim top spot. Real Madrid won their weekend match against Getafe (2-0) with goals from Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé.
Carlo Ancelotti opted for a tactical reshuffle. Kylian Mbappé took the left-wing role in Vinícius Jr.’s absence, Rodrygo operated as the central forward, and Brahim Díaz earned a rare start.
Allowing Mbappé to exploit his natural preference for the space between the full-back and centre-back proved crucial. In midfield, injuries forced Ancelotti to deploy Dani Ceballos at the heart of the pitch, where he performed well as a squad player. Meanwhile, Arda Güler replaced Jude Bellingham, who was forced off due to injury.
While Barcelona was the last team to defeat Los Blancos in La Liga, their Champions League campaign has been less convincing. Real Madrid suffered a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield and a 3-1 loss to Milan at home. This is a stark contrast to their usual dominance in the competition, where they’ve often looked untouchable.
| Recent Form | LWWLW |
| Key Player to Watch | Kylian Mbappé |
| Team Strengths | Strong individual quality and athletic players |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of pressing intensity and cohesive pressing scheme, issues in the adaptation of the new front three, lack of replacement of Kroos, lack of rest defence |
| Key injuries and suspensions. | Éder Militão, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Vinicius Jr |
The two clubs have played each other 57 times. Real Madrid won 39 matches, while Athletic Club only won ten.
Real Madrid won the last match in March (2-0), with Rodrygo scoring a brace. Athletic Club’s last victory dates back to 2022, when the Basques secured a narrow 1-0 victory in the Copa Del Rey.
Both teams looked set to play longer than 90’ but Athletic Club’s Álex Berenguer scored the winner in the 89th minute.
Bet hereBesides Sancet, much of the spotlight will be on Nico Williams. He’s younger than his brother Iñaki, but it doesn’t make him less good. On the contrary, Nico established himself as one of the best wingers in the league, attracting the interest of major clubs including Barcelona.
He’s expected to lead the 1v1 challenges to disbalance Real Madrid’s defence. The team has struggled to create or defend on the wings since Carvajal’s injury, which should put Nico in a favourable position.
On Real Madrid’s side, Vinicius Jr would’ve been the undisputed choice but his absence delegates the responsibility to Kylian Mbappé. The Frenchman had a nightmare at Anfield and will look to show a better performance against Athletic Club. Although his pace and brilliance haven’t evaporated, Mbappé still hasn’t fully adapted to Madrid’s dynamics.
Mbappé’s recent performance against Getafe showed signs of improvement, and he’s expected to start as the left winger against Athletic Club. His pace should give him the advantage 1v1, which is why he’s selected as the player to focus on.
Athletic Club is famous for their unique pressing scheme. Few teams can run as much as Valverde’s team. This will be a problem for a team like Real Madrid, as Ancelotti’s men coordinate their press badly, and suffocate to high-pressure systems like Barcelona’s.
Athletic is known for its unique academy system, recruiting exclusively from the Basque country. They also have one of the best centre-back pair in Vivian and Paredes, which means Mbappé and his teammates will need to step up.
Real Madrid will need to bet on Athletic Club’s lack of quality strikers and their superior individual quality. There’s no doubt that the likes of Mbappé, Rodrygo, Fede Valverde and Brahim Díaz should be able to beat Athletic Club in 1v1’s, but it’s unknown how much of a team they are.
The team has often suffered in transitions, as Ancelotti needs to find someone to compensate for Mbappé’s lack of defensive care.
The atmosphere at San Mamés will also play a significant role. Known for its electrifying support, Athletic’s home crowd is among the loudest and most passionate in Spain. This makes it one of the most challenging away venues in La Liga.
Real Madrid are likely to be seen as the favourites, but anyone who has seen Athletic Club play in the last seasons would know that they’re a hard nut to crack. The Vivian-Paredes center-back pairing is one of the most solid in La Liga.
At the same time, Athletic Club lacks the cutting edge in the box, and won’t have a striker who will be able to finish the dozens of chances the team creates. Real Madrid cannot sustain pressure, which is probably the best way to win against Athletic Club.
The weaknesses of both teams leads me to think there’s a high chance of a draw.
Athletic Club’s home advantage at San Mamés promises a unique atmosphere, where opposition players struggle to cope with the intensity of Athletic Club’s ultras. Ernesto Valverde’s team rarely concedes, thanks to the Vivian-Paredes pairing at the heart of the backline.
At the same time, Athletic Club doesn’t have enough players who are difference-makers in the final third, so I believe they won’t score either.
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