Real Madrid are targeting a second victory over Italian opposition in this season’s Champions League. José Mourinho returns to his former club as they take on Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday.

Unbeaten Roma Improving Under Gasperini

Roma are heading in the right direction under Gian Piero Gasperini, but he does have some selection issues for this fixture. First-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar has a fractured toe, while captain Bryan Cristante is out until around 20 October.

Pierluigi Gollini did well in Svilar’s absence in the 0-0 draw against Como at the weekend, making four saves. Striker Donyell Malen was sent off, but his suspension will only apply to domestic football.

Paulo Dybala picked up a knock last time out, but should still be fit to face Real Madrid. He’ll be hoping to escape the attention of Aurélien Tchouaméni and will look to add to his tally of four assists in seven competitive outings this term.

Roma predicted lineup vs Real Madrid (3-4-2-1): Gollini; Mancini, N’Dicka, Hermoso; Molina, de Roon, Koné, Wesley; Dybala, Soulé; Malen.

Real Madrid Set To Make Changes In Defence

Real Madrid also had a forward sent off at the weekend, as Vinícius Júnior saw red in the 1-0 win over Villarreal, though his ban is domestic only. Dean Huijsen was suspended for that match, but he looks sure to return in central defence.

Kylian Mbappé has recovered from the injury that forced him out of the France squad. The 27-year-old has netted eight goals in nine club appearances this season.

Los Blancos are again expected to be without the injured quartet of Éder Militão, Raúl Asencio, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo. Rotation at full-back is also likely, with Denzel Dumfries and Marc Cucurella set to return. The latter assisted twice for Spain at the World Cup, but has no goal contributions for his new club.

Real Madrid predicted lineup vs Roma (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Dumfries, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius; Mbappé.

Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Roma +1.5 Handicap
  • Odds: 1.36 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Roma 2-2 Real Madrid
  • 22Bet Booking Code: P87RL

Key stats:

  • Roma are unbeaten in 14 matches in all competitions.
  • I Giallorossi have won six of their previous seven home fixtures.
  • Real Madrid have only won one of their last six games by a margin of more than one goal.

Despite being blessed with elite individual talents such as Mbappé, Vinícius and Jude Bellingham, Real Madrid remain an unconvincing team unit. They’ve lost two of their four away fixtures and needed goals in the 90th minute or later to clinch three points in their other road matches.

There is always a chance that one of Madrid’s attacking stars will put in a world-class performance, but overall Roma will be confident. Gasperini’s team are averaging 2.33 goals per game in Serie A, while they’ve kept four clean sheets. They are a safe pick at odds of 1.36 with a +1.5 handicap.

Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Donyell Malen to score anytime
  • Odds: 2.2 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: FL7RL

Malen will be motivated to make amends for his red card. He has been exceptional since joining Roma in January, with 20 goals in 24 Serie A appearances.

The Dutchman also netted four goals in eight outings in the 2025/26 Europa League, including his time at Aston Villa. The 27-year-old offers value as an anytime goalscorer bet at 2.2.

Verdict: Roma +1.5 Handicap (1.36) — Roma 2-2 Real Madrid.