Searching for Glory: The Key to Arsenal’s Premier League Title Challenge

After two consecutive seasons of falling short in the title race, Arsenal will once again try to dethrone Manchester City in the upcoming campaign. 

The Cityzens have shown tremendous stability, adding new interesting pieces to their game in defense and attack every season. If City avoids any critical squad losses this summer, it will be extremely difficult for Arteta’s team to break Guardiola’s hegemony.

Furthermore, Manchester City has a competent transfer policy, acquiring top-class players year after year, ultimately tilting the difference in their favour.

Arsenal still struggle to keep up with such a powerful opponent, especially due to their comparatively limited financial resources.

However, in the 2022-23 season, Arsenal was just five points behind City, and in the 2023-24 season, they reduced the gap to only two points. It is possible that one or two strategic acquisitions this summer could help the London club finally reach parity with their massive rival.

From Crumbling to Composed: How Arsenal Fortified Their Defense for the Upcoming Season

In the season before last, Arsenal lost their lead in the English Premier League (EPL) table with just five rounds to go. In April and May, Arteta’s team fell apart due to fatigue and numerous defensive lapses. As a result, Arsenal conceded ten more goals than Manchester City, which directly affected the final gap between the teams in the table.

However, in the 2023-24 season, Arsenal drastically improved their defensive efficiency, both in terms of expected goals against (xGA) and the number of goals conceded. The team conceded 14 fewer goals than in the 2022-23 season, largely due to the acquisition of Declan Rice, as well as improved pressing and counter-pressing quality.

Additionally, William Saliba has started to regularly show extra quality in the defensive line, further reducing the threat to Arsenal’s goal.

Ahead of the 2024-25 season, Arsenal are unlikely to make any major upgrades to their defense unless Arteta wants to get another balanced left fullback. 

Such a player would be more well-rounded than the overly attacking Zinchenko or the overly defensive Kiwior. Most likely, such a player will be the versatile Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori, whom we wrote about a few days ago.

Meanwhile, Declan Rice will continue to play the key role in the midfield during transitions from attack to defense.

Arsenal’s Depth Illusion: Why Arteta Risks Burning Out His Stars in the Title Race

A general look at Arsenal’s squad gives the impression that the team has great depth and quality.

However, in reality, the London club had as many as five players last season who played over 3,000 minutes in the Premier League. In comparison, Manchester City didn’t have a single player reach that many minutes on the pitch, nor did Real Madrid, who won La Liga and the Champions League last season.

Arteta’s side also had six players play more than 3,000 minutes in the 2022-23 Premier League season.

Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Magalhães, and Benjamin White have all spent over six thousand minutes on the pitch in the last two seasons. This tremendous workload is especially taxing considering Arsenal have also competed in the Champions League and Europa League with their main squad.

Mikel Arteta, by relying so heavily on a core group of five or six players, runs the risk of burnout. It is no wonder Ødegaard and Gabriel Martinelli scored half as many goals last season compared to the 2022-23 season.

As it stands, Arteta currently has no equivalent replacements for key players such as William Saliba, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White, and Bukayo Saka. Therefore, these players are forced to play with limited rest in almost every match.

This has already cost Arsenal the Premier League title twice. In the season before last, the team ran out of energy in May, and last season, the London club suffered a major slump in November-December.

Furthermore, if any of these key players suffer a long-term injury, it will be extremely difficult for Arsenal to fight for the title in the new season.

Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola is constantly rotating players in the defense and midfield lines, with only Rodri being the irreplaceable player who consistently spends the most minutes on the pitch.

Goals Win Titles: Can Arsenal Compete with City Without a Proven Scorer?

Let’s assume that none of Arsenal’s main players will get injured in the new season and everyone will consistently play at a high level again.

Then Arsenal would still be missing crucial piece – a prolific center forward. The Gunners scored five goals fewer than Manchester City last season, despite winning six games by a margin of more than four goals. Even with these big wins, Arteta’s team still fell short of City’s overall goal tally.

Guardiola, after acquiring Erling Haaland, prioritized more goals from the super striker over team combination play. As a result, Haaland scored more goals in the previous two seasons alone than Arsenal’s top two scorers combined. This is one of the main reasons why the London club lost out in the championship race to Manchester City.

Moreover, Arsenal scored eight fewer goals from open play than Manchester City last season, only compensated by more goals after corners.

Despite this, Arteta is hopeful that Arsenal will be able to score enough goals through collective interplay without the help of a traditional scoring forward. 

Ødegaard & Co. Enough? Or Does Arsenal Need a “Goal Machine”?

If Arsenal can purchase a scoring striker capable of scoring at least 20 goals in a season, it could be enough to surpass Guardiola’s team in the title race.

In the previous season, Arsenal missed numerous scoring opportunities in lost matches against Aston Villa and West Ham due to their inability to convert chances. The team needed a striker who could effectively capitalize on opportunities in the penalty area.

Arsenal should consider competing in the transfer market for strikers like Victor Osimhen, Victor Boniface, Serhou Guirassy, or Gonçalo Ramos, who could provide additional attacking options. However, doubts arise from Arsenal’s transfer activity this summer, raising questions about the club’s commitment to securing a scoring forward.

There is uncertainty about whether the current attacking players, such as Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, and Leandro Trossard, can consistently score more than ten goals over the next two seasons. Additionally, it remains to be seen whether Bukayo Saka can reach the 15-goal mark again after a long season last year and seven more Euro 2024 matches.

Notably, goals from corners have been Arsenal’s primary source of offense, compensating for the team’s underperformance in attack and poor execution in the opponent’s penalty area.

Conclusion

At first glance, Arsenal appears to have a full squad, but in reality, Arteta rotates his players far less frequently than his main rival, Pep Guardiola.

Due to the lack of regular rest, Arsenal’s key players occasionally experience physical fatigue and miss crucial opportunities to secure the title.

Additionally, the club’s management is hesitant to acquire at least one proven goal-scoring striker who could help the team navigate challenging moments in the season.

Arsenal fans can only hope that the team’s leaders will be able to get through the new season without injuries and score even more goals than in the past two years. This is because Manchester City next season will likely be as strong, if not stronger, than they were last season.