Vito Pereira’s arrival at Wolverhampton has sparked an immediate change in the club’s fortunes. The West Midlands side have lifted themselves out of the relegation places over the festive period after winning twice and playing out one draw.
The general system hasn’t changed that much, with Wolverhampton still deploying a 3-4-2-1 formation. However, their main emphasis is now on hanging back and soaking up pressure before hitting on the counterattack. Defensively, the Wolves have been better since Pereira’s appointment. It limits Man United and Leicester to xGs under one.
Despite all that, Wolverhampton’s xGA this season is still a high 23.40, and they’ve conceded 22 goals from open play. They boast excellent quality in the final third, scoring 27 goals from an open play xG of 17.25.
The home team’s prospects this weekend are, however, negatively impacted by an injured Matheus Cunha being ruled out until the end of the month.
Nuno Espírito Santo returns to Molineux on Monday evening with his Nottingham Forest side. They’re currently in the midst of a push for a Champions League spot.
Forest have recorded wins in each of their last five and are just nine points off the top of the Premier League standings. The East Midlands club were at their clinical best against Everton last time out, with Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White netting in a 2-0 win.
Forest are narrowly underperforming in terms of xG, having scored 17 goals from a metric of 18.50. However, the defensive partnership of Nikola Milenković and Murillo has given them an excellent platform. Nottingham have conceded just 16 goals from an xGA of 17.88 this season.
Jonathan Panzo and Danilo are both ruled out for this week’s clash, but the majority of Santo’s squad are fully fit to feature.
Bet hereWolverhampton boasts the overall advantage against Forest based on historical meetings, but the visitors have rarely looked as strong as they do for this moment. Therefore, there is value in siding with the away win when making a Wolverhampton vs Nottingham Forest prediction.
Their chances are enhanced because the Wolves will be without top scorer and leading playmaker Matheus Cunha. This will limit their output in the final third.
Nottingham’s excellent defensive record will give them the platform required to play on the counter-attack. Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi look to get space in behind the Wolverhampton full-backs when the hosts are attacking.
This is typically a hotly contested fixture, with 12 cards brandished across the two clashes between the sides last term. That trend may continue this week, with Wolverhampton averaging 2.32 cards per game and Nottingham Forest averaging 2.47.
Former Wolverhampton star Morgan Gibbs-White could be an interesting angle for football predictions. The attacking midfielder scored against his former club at Molineux last season. He also scored three goals from 1.95 shots per 90 and an xG of 2.03 in the English top-flight this season.
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