| Odds via 22Bet | |
| Venezia vs Milan | Sunday, April 27, 2025, 12:30 GMT+1 |
| Venezia odds | 4.76 |
| Milan odds | 1.68 |
| Draw | 4.02 |
| Over\Under | Total 2.5: 1.76/2.06 |
| Betting Bonus | Up to 122 $/€ |
Eusebio Di Francesco’s side have edged five points clear of the drop since mid-March, thanks to a stubborn run in which they ground out a 1-1 draw at Lecce. They pinched an own goal through Andrea Gallo before fading in the final half-hour.
A week later, they finally rediscovered the winning touch. Dany Mota’s predatory header toppled Monza 1-0 and ended a seven-game winless spell.
They showed familiar verve in the 2-2 draw away to Empoli last weekend, twice leading through Busio and Yeboah before defensive lapses let the points slip.
Venezia have morphed into a low-block 3-5-2 that compresses the central corridor, daring opponents to cross early. Since shifting Hans Caviglia deeper, they’ve reduced opponents’ progressive passes compared with January. Yet, the back three still struggle when dragged wide.
Lecce equalised after forcing Candé to defend space behind wing-back Carboni, while Monza’s xG came almost entirely from cut-backs into the right half-space.
In possession, they lean heavily on Busio’s diagonal switches to release Zerbin, and most of their open-play entries arrive from the left lane.
Filip Stankovic (hamstring) is still only “50–50”, so Ionuț Radu is poised to retain the gloves after two clean sheets in his last three league starts. Centre-back Michael Svoboda (ACL) remains out. Midfielder Domen Crnigoj and wing-back Richie Sagrado continue to nurse minor muscular issues.
Venezia predicted lineup vs Milan (3-5-1-1): Radu; Marcandalli, Idzes, Cande; Zerbin, Perez, Caviglia, Busio, Ellertsson; Oristanio; Gytkjaer.
Sérgio Conceição’s Milan arrive in a confusing state of flux. A rousing 4-0 demolition of Udinese on April 11, fuelled by goals from Leão, Pavlović, Hernández, and Reijnders. It’s suggested a corner has been turned after three winless outings.
However, Milan struggled to show the same sharpness against Atalanta, suffering a 1-0 defeat at home where Éderson’s header capitalized on their ineffective possession.
After those league fixtures, Conceição’s men battered Inter 3-0 in the Coppa Italia semi-final second leg. The performance was marked by powerful pressing and rapid, wide interchanges.
Conceição’s tweaks have been bolder. Against Udinese, he abandoned the early-season double pivot, instructing Reijnders to tilt left and create a box with Hernández and Leão. The payoff was evident as Milan generated 24 touches inside the six-yard box.
However, Atalanta stifled that pattern by parking a third centre-back on Leão’s inside shoulder and instructing Bellanova to track Theo all the way to halfway. This left Jović isolated.
Kyle Walker trained fully this week after elbow surgery and should reclaim the right-back slot. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is over a bout of flu. Fikayo Tomori (knee irritation) is being managed carefully but travelled.
Milan predicted lineup vs Venezia (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Abraham; Leao.
Bet hereVenezia’s low-block 5-3-2 squeezes the half-spaces but leaves the back three exposed when wing-backs are pinned deep. Bologna exploited that with a recycled cross for Riccardo Orsolini’s winner. Milan’s right-side triangle of Jiménez, Pulisic, and Fofana is tailor-made to repeat the sequence.
Crucially, Walker’s possible return drags the far-side wing-back wide and opens Theo’s under-laps on the opposite flank.
One of Venezia’s last ten league outings finished under the 3.5 line. They have not produced a match with more than three non-penalty goals since late February.
Milan themselves average just 1.11 goals conceded, the sixth-best defence in Italy, and Conceição habitually locks games once ahead.
Combine those characteristics, and the likely outcome is an early Milan breakthrough, followed by controlled possession instead of a shoot-out. This should keep the total goals under the 3.5 threshold while solidly confirming the away-win prediction.
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