Model V3's total-goals projection for this fixture sits at 2.1, among the lowest of the round. Both sides have leaned on structured, patient build-up in the knockout rounds rather than direct attacking play, and neither has scored more than once in a game since the group stage ended.
The model weighs recent knockout-stage tempo more heavily than group-stage form, since teams typically manage risk more carefully once a loss ends the tournament — a pattern that's held for both of these sides so far.
The pick: Under 2.5 Goals at 2.00. A model-driven total based on tempo and shot-volume trends, not a scoreline prediction.