| Odds via 22bet | |
| Spain vs Germany | July 5, 17:00 GMT+1 |
| Spain odds | 2.66 |
| Germany odds | 2.79 |
| Draw | 3.13 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 2.01/1.79 |
Spain has won all of their matches in the tournament and appears to be the most balanced team so far.
Luis De La Fuente took over the reins after Spain’s poor performance in the last World Cup. Since then, Spain has won the Nations League finals, topped their qualification group, and dominated their Euro 2024 group.
Under De La Fuente’s guidance, the Spanish team is capable of powerful pressing and counter-pressing, which was particularly evident in the win against Italy. This aggressive approach contrasts sharply with the more conservative defensive strategies of other tournament contenders.
Additionally, Spain has a clear set of attacking ideas and a philosophy for the players, emphasizing quick transitions from defense to attack, often with delivery to the flanks, from where the final attacking passes come.
The scheme of the De La Fuente team is quite hard to describe because fullbacks and central midfielders frequently change positions, making it difficult for opponents to adapt to Spain’s attacking game. However, the team generally adheres to a structured formation of 2-3-5.
In the left half-space, Marc Cucurella often drags defenders out of position, enabling Nico Williams to exploit 1v1 situations, where he thrives. On the right flank, Lamine Yamal often shifts to the center with a variety of passes and dangerous shots, creating space for Daniel Carvajal’s marauding runs.
In the central zone, it is interesting to watch the creative openings of Álvaro Morata, Fabián Ruiz, and Pedri. The latter is great at navigating tight spaces and very dangerous with his shots.
Spain’s game appears virtually flawless, making them strong favorites for the upcoming match and the tournament overall. However, De La Fuente’s team has faced limited top-tier competition. The friendly match against Brazil and the matches against Croatia and Italy at Euro 2024 exposed certain of Spain’s weaknesses.
Yamal and Williams show a reluctance to track back in defensive phases, particularly in the middle and low blocks. Additionally, Marc Cucurella’s weakness in aerial duels during passes into the penalty box should not be forgotten. Plus, Álvaro Morata’s struggles with finishing could be problematic in the decisive matches.
| Recent Form | WWWWW |
| Key Players to Watch | Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams |
| Team Strengths | Very balanced roster. |
| Team Weaknesses | Attacking players are not always willing to be disciplined in defence. |
The German national team had a strong start to the tournament, defeating Scotland and Hungary with relative ease. However, it became apparent that these opponents were not of the highest caliber, and the true test awaited them in the third round against Switzerland.
Switzerland had thoroughly analyzed the German team’s playing style and came prepared. They utilized a 5-3-2 formation to congest the midfield with six players, comprising three central defenders and three central midfielders.
This tactical approach effectively neutralized Germany’s main offensive strategy of attacking through the center, forcing them to focus their attacks on the flanks, which proved less effective.
Additionally, Switzerland effectively employed man-to-man pressing in the opponent’s half, making it difficult for Germany to execute their short passing game. This posed a significant challenge to the German team’s plans, and Switzerland came very close to defeating them, only to be denied by a last-minute goal.
In the round of 16, Denmark attempted to replicate Switzerland’s success, employing a 5-2-3 (5-4-1) formation with a medium-low defensive block and a high defensive line, though without high pressing.
The first half of the match was relatively with few dangerous moments. However, after Denmark was awarded a penalty due to accidental handball by Joachim Andersen, Germany scored the opening goal. Denmark subsequently committed more players to attack, leading to a loss of defensive concentration, allowing Germany to secure a second goal.
These matches underscored Germany’s reliance on creating numerical advantages through rapid combinations in the central zone. When opponents effectively close off the midfield and apply strong pressure, Germany struggles with penetrating the opponent’s penalty area.
| Recent Form | WDWWW |
| Key Players to Watch | Jamal Musiala, İlkay Gündoğan, Rodri |
| Team Strengths | Quick combinations in the centre zone in front of the opponent’s penalty area. |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of players who can create quality chances through the flanks. |
Over the past two decades, Spain and Germany have faced each other several times in major tournaments. Spain defeated Germany 1-0 in the final of Euro 2008 and then won again with the same score in the semi-final of the 2010 World Cup. Both matches were fiercely contested, and the outcomes could have swung in Germany’s favor with a bit more luck.
In the 2020 Nations League, they drew in the first match before Spain delivered a stunning 6-0 thrashing on German soil.
During the 2022 World Cup, Spain and Germany played to a 1-1 draw in the second round. It’s worth highlighting that Germany was already eliminated at the group stage.
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The battle between İlkay Gündoğan and his former teammate Rodri could be one of the key matchups in the Spain vs Germany match.
Gündoğan will likely be highly active in Spain’s holding zone, making his trademark stealthy runs into the opponents’ penalty area. It will be interesting to see if Rodri can control İlkay’s movements and neutralize him by intelligently reading the game.
Additionally, Pedri and Lamine Yamal may cause significant headaches in the right half-space for Jonathan Tah and David Raum, who are among the less reliable defenders in Germany’s lineup.
Another key aspect will be whether Nico Williams can consistently track Joshua Kimmich in the defensive phase, as Kimmich’s connections and playmaking abilities can pose a significant threat to opponents.
The key tactical question is whether Germany will be able to consistently create a 4v3 or even 5v3 numerical advantage in the center of the pitch over Spain.
If the Germans can do that, as Croatia did against Spain in the first round, then Germany will certainly be able to generate numerous chances and dominate possession.
Conversely, if Spain can press effectively and disrupt Germany’s attempts to move the ball through the center, they will likely seize the initiative.
Another important question is whether Germany will be able to hold back Spain’s quick attacks with counter-pressing. Failing to do so means the risk of conceding goals.Spain’s speedy attackers have the ability to devastate opponents on the counter-attack with fast dribbling and quick combinations.
Both teams have showcased a proactive style in this tournament, attacking with a large number of players.
At the same time it is possible that the coaches are trying to play more cautiously in this match.
However, they will most likely try to win by using their attacking strengths, which means that we can hope that this match will be one of the most entertaining in the tournament. Given the attacking prowess on both sides, we can predict more than one goal in this clash.
Both teams have vulnerable players on the defensive line who can make individual errors in crucial games. However, at the same time, both teams have a powerful attacking group that can make the difference in top matches.
Therefore, my EURO 2024 prediction would be both teams to score.
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