Romania vs Sweden Prediction, Betting Tips & Booking Code (Oct 5)

Romania host Sweden at Arena Națională on 5 October. The hosts are still searching for their first win, while Sweden sit at the top of the group with two wins and one draw.

Romania's Depleted Defence Faces a Major Test

Romania conceded 12 goals in their first three Nations League matches (4 goals per match). In their third-round 6-0 defeat to Poland, Romania stayed without their first-choice centre-backs.

Radu Drăgușin (Fiorentina) received a straight red card in the 22nd minute, while Virgil Ghiță (Hannover) picked up his second yellow card of the campaign and will also be unavailable against Sweden. Romania's defensive problems are not a short-term issue. In their last 10 matches, the team have kept just one clean sheet, against Austria, played on 12 December 2025.

Gheorghe Hagi has used a different formation in each of Romania's three matches this window: 4-2-3-1 against Bosnia and Herzegovina, 3-4-1-2 against Sweden and 4-3-1-2 against Poland. With both centre-backs suspended, Hagi is expected to retain the 4-3-1-2 structure used against Poland, although personnel changes will be required in central defence.

Romania predicted lineup vs Sweden (4-3-1-2): Radu; Rațiu, Coubiș, Eissat, Bancu; Marin, Baluta, Mihaila; Hagi; Man, Tănase.

Sweden on Track to Finish Top of the Group

Sweden also have injury concerns in defence. Carl Starfelt was replaced by Eric Smith in the 31st minute against Bosnia and Herzegovina with a muscle injury.

Sweden's attack depends heavily on Gyökeres, who has scored in each of their previous three Nations League matches this window, accounting for three of their six goals. His finishing and ability to exploit Romania's weakened centre-back pairing make him the key attacking threat.

Sweden predicted lineup vs Romania (4-4-2): Johansson; Skoglund, Smith, Lindelöf, Gudmundsson; Bernhardsson, Karlström, Larsson, Nanasi; Zeneli, Gyökeres.

Romania vs Sweden Prediction

  • Safe tip: Over 2.5 goals
  • Odds: 1.58 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Romania 1-3 Sweden
  • 22Bet Booking Code: ZNEF1

Key stats:

  • The average number of goals in the last 5 Sweden matches is 2.8.
  • In Romania's last 5 matches, the average number of goals was 4.
  • The first match in this window between Sweden and Romania ended 2-1.

Looking only at this three-match Nations League window, all of Romania's games have finished with over 2.5 goals: 6-0 against Poland, 4-2 against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and 2-1 against Sweden in the first meeting.

Sweden have also seen two of their three matches go over 2.5 goals, with the only exception being their 1-1 draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina, where both teams had a goal ruled out.

Romania vs Sweden Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Sweden to win and both teams to score - Yes
  • Odds: 2.93 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: B9EF1

Romania's three defeats in this Nations League window, the absence of their two first-choice centre-backs and Sweden's strong form, led by an in-form Viktor Gyökeres, make Sweden the clear favourite. However, Sweden have conceded exactly one goal in each of their three matches during this international window.

Looking further back, Sweden have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 18 matches, with their last shutout coming in a 2-0 win over Hungary on 6 June 2025.

Romania, on the other hand, has scored 1.2 goals on average in the last five matches. For that reason, a Sweden win with both teams to score looks like a logical outcome.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals - Romania 1-3 Sweden