After a tumultuous start to the Serie A season under the now-dismissed Daniele De Rossi, Roma has shown signs of revival under the guidance of Ivan Jurick. A striking 3-0 victory over Udinese last round marked a significant turnaround, hinting at a potential upswing in their form.
Roma’s worries concern the realization of dangerous opportunities. They create chances but do not convert less than a third into goals. In the first four matches, they generated an expected goals (xG) tally of 7 but managed to convert only two into actual goals.
Home-field advantage is much more important in European competitions than in domestic championships, and the Romans are superior at home, having won 12 out of 19 matches.
Roma will be missing two players. Central midfielder Enzo Le Fée is sidelined, and Alexis Saelemaekers, who underwent ankle surgery, will also not feature.
The past season was historic for Athletic. For the first time in 40 years, they celebrated a monumental Copa del Rey victory. The start of the current campaign is also convincing, as Bilbao have already grabbed four victories.
In terms of their Europa League ambitions, much hinges on their drive and determination. Considering Girona’s downhill form in La Liga, Athletic will focus on securing a spot in the Champions League.
We have already mentioned the Romans’ problems in the final stage of the attack. In contrast, Bilbao is doing quite well. Opting to play as underdogs, their strategy revolves around efficiency rather than volume, capitalizing on the few chances they create with deadly precision.
Athletic Club have notable injury worries. Key players such as goalkeeper Unai Simon, forward Nico Williams, defender Yeray Álvarez, and left-back Yuri Berchiche are all sidelined.
Bet hereRoma’s form is still far from ideal. The match against Udinese was a glimmer of hope after poor results at the start of the season, but they still need to improve. Their performance has been especially lacking in defense and midfield, areas where cohesion and effectiveness have yet to meet expectations.
At the offensive end, the disparity between their expected goals (nearly 3 xG per match) and actual scoring (barely one goal per match) underscores a significant issue in finishing.
Bilbao had more positive results so far. Under Ernesto Valverde, they are better at converting chances, and we think that in the upcoming encounter, the guests will clinch at least a draw.
At the start of the season, Athletic only failed to score against Atletico. Otherwise, the Basques have consistently scored against their opponents – with an average of 1.7 goals scored.
Roma, on the other hand, struggled to score and left the pitch without a single goal in several matches. Given the form of both teams, the hosts will likely have a hard time keeping a clean sheet against Bilbao.
Athletic Club have a solid midfield and organized squad. We expect key players to go to the offence and create chances despite the absence of key players. Thus our pick for the upcoming encounter will be – Bilbao to score at least one goal.
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