A home win will rank among the most unlikely selections when making a Preston North End vs Arsenal prediction this week. The Lancashire club have made a rocky start to the new season after winning just three times in their opening 12 matches.
However, they have played out draws in each of their last two. Defensive issues have been very apparent in recent weeks, conceding five in back-to-back ties against Plymouth and Norwich.
Preston have accumulated an xG of 1.21 in home matches, netting seven goals in total in the Championship. However, it could be worth considering that they have kept clean sheets in 67% of their matches at Deepdale in the second tier.
Preston have largely deployed a 3-5-2 formation this season, but against a Premier League rival, they may drop into a 5-4-1 formation and try and utilise the pace of Sam Greenwood on the counter-attack.
However, former Burnley star Robbie Brady will be a key absence in the Carabao Cup this Thursday after limping off in Saturday’s draw at Plymouth.
Mikel Arteta will put extra emphasis on the EFL Cup this season as the Spaniard looks to win a second major trophy at the Emirates. However, Arsenal will still likely make sweeping changes to the team that held Liverpool on Sunday, with Bukayo Saka likely to be one of the key players given the night off at Deepdale.
The Gunners have brought through younger stars in this competition in recent seasons, meaning that Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri will likely be handed starts in the League Cup after impressing in the previous round against Bolton.
Arsenal’s main strength has been in their defensive play this season, conceding just five goals from an xGA of 8.76.
However, it is worth considering that they will enjoy the majority of the possession this week. Arsenal haven’t been clinical against teams with a low-block so far this season, narrowly escaping with maximum points in home matches against Leicester and Southampton.
However, against a Championship rival, they should have enough in reserve to power past Preston, with Raheem Sterling and Leandro Trossard in line to make starts.
Bet hereArsenal’s problems against teams operating with a low block is well worth taking into consideration this week, especially since they will likely be without Saka to run at the Preston defence.
Preston will field their strongest possible team, while the Gunners will hand opportunities to a number of fringe players.
It is still very hard to overlook the prospect of an away win, but Arsenaland their struggles against solid defensive teams means that a chance on the handicap market is easy to overlook. But, Arsenal’s excellent defensive record does mean that there could be value in the selection of the Gunners to win to nil.
Preston will need to be defensively solid if they are to threaten the upset on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup.
Therefore, tactical fouls may be evident from the home side throughout the match at Deepdale. Ben Whiteman will play an important role in stopping Arsenal’s midfield from breaking through the lines, and he has regularly been disciplined for tactical fouls throughout the season.
The 28-year-old has already been booked six times in eleven matches this season, with two cards dished out in his last two domestic appearances.
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