Nuno Espírito Santo has given Nottingham Forest fans the ability to dream of a European push this Christmas. They come into the festive round of matches sitting fourth in the league standings, above heavyweights such as Tottenham, Man United, and Man City.
Forest have won each of their last three, despite being the outsiders in the betting for their fixtures against the Red Devils, Aston Villa, and Brentford. Santo rotated his system slightly on Saturday with a 3-4-2-1 formation. Morgan Gibbs-White was the creator from a deeper position.
Defensively, Nottingham have been excellent across their last two, restricting their opponents to an xG of under one. Overall, they’re outperforming that metric this season, conceding 16 goals from an xGA of 16.91. Still, they’ll need to be more consistent in the final third if they’re to finish in a European spot after scoring 14 goals from an xG of 15.08.
Ange Postecoglou would have been pulling his hair out after watching his leaky Tottenham defence breached at ease by an opponent on Sunday. A 6-3 loss against Liverpool means that the Spurs have conceded nine in their last two across all competitions and ten in their previous three.
The xG metric would still have you believe that they’re solid at the back, conceding 20 goals from an xGA of 24.55. The continued absences of Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero will be a concern this week.
The Spurs at least have goals at the opposite end of the field, scoring 34 times from an xG of 32.68 this term. James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski were the standout stars against Liverpool on Sunday, with the latter netting his fifth goal of the season from an xG of 3.60.
Bet hereDefensive play could come out on top on Thursday, and it’s hard to argue that Forest have been the better defensive team of these two in recent weeks.
Tottenham have been too leaky after allowing ten in their last three, while Nottingham have allowed just three goals in as many matches.
The Tricky Trees haven’t beaten the Spurs since their promotion back to the top flight, but a fully fit squad for the hosts could make them the standout Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction. Especially considering that the Spurs will be without three of their usual back five.
One of the most eye-catching bets this weekend will be for both teams to score at the City Ground. Tottenham’s leaky defensive record has been evident recently, but they’ve also found the net with their excellent quality in the final third. Nottingham also have a positive attacking record, and they’ve scored in two of their last three against the Spurs.
Under 5.5 cards could be a solid angle. Forest have averaged just 1.38 cards per match at the City Ground this season. Tottenham have been one of the better teams in terms of discipline after picking up an average of just 2.19 cards per game.
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