Monaco’s start to the Ligue 1 season has been strong, and if they can end a two-game winless sequence, they could move level on points at the top of the French division.
A red card issued to Vanderson against Nice last weekend ultimately proved costly in defeat on the road, and there will be a selection headache in the right-back position due to his suspension on Friday.
Jordan Teze is also absent due to suspension, while Mohammed Salisu and Folarin Balogun are notable absentees in the forward areas. The striker’s absence has been felt in recent matches, as Monaco’s xG in their last three has dropped significantly.
Against Nice, they registered an xG of just 0.80. Based on this metric, they are underperforming in open play this season, scoring eleven times from an xG of 13.42.
Without Balogun’s pace to run in behind, Monaco have been forced to play with a more direct option such as Breel Embolo. However, that isn’t currently getting the best out of Alexander Golovkin and Takumi Minamino.
Angers gained confidence after landing their first win of the season last weekend, ending an eight-game winless sequence at the start of the season. Scoring goals hasn’t been an issue for the visitors, which is worth bearing in mind before making a Monaco vs Angers prediction.
The French side outperformed their xG of 3.27 last weekend after netting four in a win against Saint-Etienne. However, they have underperformed from open play based on this metric, netting four times with an xG of 6.03.
The stats show that they have been most dangerous from setpieces, scoring once from an xG of 1.13, and netting once from an xG of 0.71 from corners. A slightly more defensive approach is likely this weekend, with a 5-3-2 formation likely to cut out the space that Minamino could operate in the number ten position.
The system has worked to great effect already for Angers this term, restricting rivals to six goals from an xGA of 5.12 compared to nine goals and an xGA of 12.86 when using a 4-2-3-1 formation. Their chances are aided by having a fully-fit squad this week.
Bet hereMonaco’s record against Angers is worth taking into consideration when making football predictions. The hosts have won their last seven against their rivals, with Angers failing to beat Monaco since September 2018.
While injury issues are hard to overlook, Embolo and the other forward players remain high-class replacements, meaning Monaco will eventually break through Angers’ deep-block.
But, an alternative betting angle that offers insurance could be a selection of Angers (+2). The visitors have been challenging to beat in recent weeks, and their defensive approach could ultimately frustrate the hosts if they don’t make an early breakthrough. The first goal will be crucial in this encounter.
While not necessarily the most exciting betting option, it appears hard to overlook Monaco scoring at least once on Friday.
The hosts failed to score in their last home match against Lille, but they have not recorded consecutive home shutouts since March 2015. Their xG is incredibly high, and taking a high-quality chance when it arrives could be the difference between this bet being a winner or loser.
Alternatively, Monaco to receive the most cards is an interesting play given their poor disciplinary record. The hosts have had over 5.5 cards in 44% of their matches this season, which is the most of any team in Ligue 1. Monaco have also averaged 2.22 yellows per game, compared to 1.78 yellows per game for Angers.
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