Lens coach Will Still would have gone into the international break confident that his side had turned a corner after recording a fine 3-2 home win over Nantes. However, Lens will still have questions to answer this weekend after struggling in the final third throughout the season when deploying their favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
Les Sang et Or have accumulated an xG of 11.10, but they have scored just six times from 80 shots. However, their fine defensive record when using the system—conceding just six goals from an xGA of 6.27—is worth considering.
A defensive approach is very likely this weekend, with M’Bala Nzola likely to be deployed as the main outball in the final third. However, keeping an attack-minded Marseille quiet will be their first target, and it will need to be achieved before they think about winning the match on Saturday.
Their challenge will only made more difficult with Abdukodir Khusanov and Jonathan Gradit absent due to suspension.
Marseille have hit a rough patch in recent weeks. They lost two of their last three to drop to third in the Ligue 1 standings. However, they will remain a prominent Lens vs Marseille prediction this weekend.
Roberto De Zerbi has stayed true to the 4-2-3-1 formation that worked earlier in the season, with Adrien Rabiot playing an integral role in linking the defence and forwards.
There is plenty of attacking talent thriving at Marseille this season, meaning it’s little surprise that they are outperforming their xG of 14.85 after netting 20 goals from open play.
Defensively, they have also been reliable so far this season, conceding just 12 goals from an xGA of 18.1. De Zerbi will have a number of players missing this weekend, with Amine Harit and Valentin Carboni unavailable.
However, the core of the team remains fully fit, which will be a positive sign following a busy international period.
Bet hereMarseille are too big of a price to turn down this weekend, especially considering the key injuries Lens will need to contend with.
The absences of Khusanov and Gradit are vitally important, while the hosts also haven’t registered the same level of conviction in the final third of the field.
Marseille’s counter-attacking style of play has also been more dominant on the road this season, winning six of their last seven away from their home fans.
Mason Greenwood has settled into life in France quickly this season after his controversial move away from England. He looks good value to add to his tally of eight goals in eleven appearances this weekend.
At present, his xG stands at 3.76, showing his clinical nature when given a chance in the final third. Greenwood also averaged 3.04 shots per match; more than any other regular starter for Marseille.
Alternatively, under 5.5 cards looks a solid chance this weekend. Lens have seen under the benchmark in 73% of their matches this season, while only 18% of Marseille matches have seen more than 5.5 cards awarded.
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