It has been a strong start to the Europa League for Lazio, winning each of their opening three matches and scoring a tournament-high of nine goals. Defensively, the Italian side have also looked robust in their narrow 4-2-3-1 formation.
Domestically, the Serie A side has accumulated an xGA of 8.99 in the formation this season, conceding nine goals. However, it has reaped huge rewards in the final third, scoring 18 goals from an xG of 17.26.
Attacking players such as Boulaye Dia, Valentin Castellanos, and Pedro have all exceeded their xGs so far this season, meaning that they won’t need many shots at goal to trouble Porto this week.
Fortunately for Marco Baroni, Lazio will have no injury concerns to address ahead of this week’s European showdown.
Porto will also be a leading contender to finish in the qualifying positions in the Europa League after taking four points from their opening three matches.
The 4-2-3-1 formation has also served the Portuguese side well this season, with wide players such as Pepe and Galeno keeping their width to ensure that whoever is deployed in the number ten role gets space on the pace to feed passes through to the pacey Samu Omorodion.
The Spanish striker has been one of the standout players in the Europa League so far this season, having registered more goals and shots on target than any other player.
Porto have accumulated an xG of 1.12 in away matches, scoring a total of ten goals domestically overall.
But, it could be worth noting before making a Lazio vs Porto prediction that they have kept clean sheets in 75% of their away matches this season. It only aids their chances that a fully fit squad will be available.
Bet hereA closely contested match is likely between these sides, and chances could be kept to a minimum given the fact that both clubs will operate with a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Therefore, there is every chance that the sides could cancel each other out. However, there is far too much attacking talent on the field to suggest that there won’t be goals on Sunday.
The historical trends point to a home win being the most likely winning football prediction this week. Lazio have avoided defeat in their last two home matches against Portuguese sides, while Porto have recorded just a single win in their last 12 away matches against Italian rivals.
Lazio have been ahead for 80% of their matches in the Europa League so far this season, which is the highest percentage of any side in the competition. Therefore, we could see them winning the first half. The Italian side have averaged an xG of 1.98 in the opening 15 minutes this season, scoring four times from 19 shots.
Given the high stakes resting on this Europa League match, it could also be worthwhile siding with over 5.5 cards being dished out.
Lazio matches have breached this benchmark in 45% this season, while they are averaging 2.36 cards per game. Meanwhile, Porto concede an average of 14.74 fouls per match when they are playing away from home.
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