The Italians were victorious in their last two matches, defeating France (1-3) and Israel (1-2) away from home. So far, Belgium is the only opponent Italy hasn’t defeated in Group 2 of the Nation’s League.
While Italy’s front three may not seem particularly thrilling, their midfield featuring Davide Frattesi (Inter), Sandro Tonali (Newcastle United), and Federico Darco (Inter) make the match worth watching.
Head coach Luciano Spalletti also called up six new players: Michele Di Gregorio (Monza), Caleb Okoli (Leicester City), Matteo Gabbia (AC Milan), Niccolò Pisilli (AS Roma), Daniel Maldini (Monza), and Lorenzo Lucca (Udinese). Gabbia and Lucca are the likeliest to feature.
Italy has a history of performing well in group stages but struggling in knock-out rounds. Winning the Nation’s League could validate a ticket for EURO2028, so this match should be taken seriously.
Unlike Italy, Belgium will be without some of its key players. Romelu Lukaku, who recently signed with Napoli, has informed the Belgian National Team that he will not participate in any matches until 2025.
While this decision may surprise fans, Lukaku is focusing on regaining his fitness after a turbulent summer marked by transfer uncertainty, which affected his training.
The other absentee from Belgium’s roster is Kevin de Bruyne, who is recovering from a recent injury. Manchester City’s medical team has opted for caution, resulting in his omission from the national team for the October fixtures.
Belgium defeated Israel (3-1) like Italy but lost against France (2-0). Belgium is still searching for their identity in the post-Hazard era and struggling to rebuild. The team has looked shaky since the 2018 World Cup and lost against France in the Round of 16 at EURO2024.
Bet hereWithout two of its most important players, Belgium is likely to be toothless against Italy. Although Léandro Trossard (Arsenal) and Jéremy Doku (Manchester City) are expected to lead the attack, their impact won’t match that of De Bruyne and Lukaku.
Belgium has recently struggled against top teams, whereas Italy is expected to approach the match confidently. Italy is expected to control the play since most games are won in the midfield.
Italy is still light years behind the level of their glory days, but Spalletti has already shaped the team’s character. He emphasises short-passing as a mechanism of progression while also allowing individuals like Raspadori and Frattesi to take the creative lead when needed.
Furthermore, Italy is motivated to remain the group leader and a victory against Belgium could widen the gap with the number two in the standings, France, who now have six points.
Belgium, on the other hand, struggles to find its rhythm which could prove costly in a match where Italy is expected to have the upper hand.
Though Italy have moved away from their traditional Catenaccio style, they are still expected to keep a clean sheet. The Italians have an established defensive line, which hasn’t conceded many goals, while Belgium is still in the process of rebuilding.
The strength of Italy’s midfield provides defensive stability, which could prove decisive. Another factor is that the match will be hosted in Roma, the Italian capital. Home support matters, and the Italians will be determined to avoid their first defeat on home soil.
Therefore, betting on Italy to win and keep a clean sheet seems like a solid option for this encounter.
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