| Odds via 22bet | |
| Italy vs Albania | June 15, 20:00 GMT+1 |
| Italy odds | 1.38 |
| Albania odds | 8.8 |
| Draw | 4.58 |
| Over\Under | Total 2,5: 2.02 \ 1.75 |
In the first round of the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship in Group B, Italy will face Albania. Italy is considered the clear favorite in this match. However, the Italian national team’s performance has been inconsistent during the European Championship qualifiers and in the recent friendly matches leading up to the final tournament.
On one hand, Luciano Spalletti’s team has lost only once in their last 10 matches. On the other hand, over the past year, the Italians have suffered defeats against England twice and struggled to win against North Macedonia and Ukraine in away matches. In addition, they drew against Turkey (0-0) in June and only narrowly defeated Bosnia (1-0).
Moreover, some notable players such as Matteo Politano, Manuel Locatelli, and Ciro Immobile have not been included in the squad. Nicolò Zaniolo and Destiny Udogie will also be absent due to injuries, and it’s likely that Nicolò Barella will miss the first match as well.
This means that Spalletti will rely on many young players who may lack the experience of big wins. As a result, Azzurri’s squad may not be as strong as it was during Euro 2020.
| Recent Form | WDWWD |
| Key Player to Watch | Nicolò Barella |
| Team Strengths | Tactical flexibility and unpredictability for the opponent. |
| Team Weaknesses | Problems with converting chances into goals. |
Albania surprised everyone by sensationally topping their group, which included the Czech Republic and Poland. Sylvinho’s team won all the crucial matches at home, managed a draw against the Czech Republic away, and narrowly lost 0-1 to Poland in a closely contested match.
However, it’s worth noting that both the Czechs and Poles appeared to be nations in crisis during the qualifying campaign, delivering displays ranging from mediocre to downright sub-par over the cycle.
In friendly matches in March, Albania played in an open attacking style, resulting in a 0-3 defeat to Chile and a deserved 0-1 loss to Sweden, who missed many great opportunities to increase the score.
In June, Albania continued attacking and secured victories against Liechtenstein 3-0 and Azerbaijan 3-1.
Given this context, it’s challenging to gauge Albania’s ability to compete with strong teams like Italy, Croatia, and Spain.
| Recent Form | WWDD |
| Key Players to Watch | Etrit Berisha, Jasir Asani |
| Team Strengths | Clear coaching ideas on offense. |
| Team Weaknesses | Weak squad compared to competitors in the group. |
Italy last played against Albania in a November 2022 friendly. The Azzurri won 3-1, but both teams have changed coaches and rosters since then.
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Sylvinho will likely do his best to block the center in front of his penalty area. Albania will defend narrowly, making it difficult for their opponents to get easy shots on goal.
This strategy may create good opportunities on the flanks for strong and fast players like Federico Dimarco, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and Matteo Darmian. These players can make accurate crosses into the penalty area and are skilled at shooting from outside the box.
In my opinion, the Albanian team will likely struggle to contain Italy’s wing players, who can exploit the space and create significant scoring opportunities.
Bet hereSylvinho’s team can compensate for their weaknesses by playing with a deep defensive unit, which they will likely try to utilize.
In the away games against the Czech Republic and Poland, Sylvinho departed from his favorite 4-3-3 formation and instead opted for a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1, effectively transitioning into a defensive 4-5-1 formation. We will probably witness something similar in the final stage of Euro 2024.
It’s still uncertain which formation Spaletti will choose, 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1. However, based on the latest friendlies, the 3-4-3 formation seems best suited for breaking through the opponent’s tight defense.
This is due to the effective interaction of the trio of Federico Chiesa, Davide Frattesi, and Gianluca Scamacca in the central zone in front of the penalty area. At the same time, Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo can provide width to attacks on the flanks.
Both teams performed well on their home turf during the Euro 2024 qualification but struggled in away matches. It is difficult to predict how quickly they will adapt to playing on a neutral field in Dortmund.
If Italy scores an early goal or Albania plays with an open attacking style in a 4-3-3 formation, we can expect to see a few goals. However, it’s more likely that Albania will focus on defending deeply and counterattacking, while Italy will aim to break through the opponent’s defense.
Regardless, Italy appears to be the clear favorite and is expected to win this game.
In recent years, underdogs have performed well defensively against the favorites in the final stages of the European Championship. Therefore, despite Italy’s strong reputation, we can’t anticipate a goal-fest.
This rings especially true given that Spalletti’s frontline lacks the potency of previous Azzurri attacks at major finals. There will likely be few goals in this match, particularly considering the difficulties the Italian and Albanian teams have had in converting their chances.
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