Kieran McKenna will be hoping for another progressive showing from his Ipswich squad when they host Brighton on Thursday. A win will see them end the round outside of relegation. Confidence can be gained from their last two results after picking up four points.
The head coach’s decision to revert to a 5-4-1 formation has been a massive boost to their chances, and they have looked more reliable defensively. Since changing the system, Ipswich have conceded an xGA of 7.90 compared to a metric of 40.85 when playing the 4-2-3-1 formation.
However, this has limited their attacking qualities, as the hosts have now recorded an xG of only 19.95 with the 5-4-1 formation, scoring three times.
Ipswich will be without Omari Hutchinson this week due to injury, but Conor Chaplin could be recalled.
Brighton will be looking to end an eight-game winless streak in the Premier League on Thursday. They’ve played out draws in their previous four in the competition.
The guests at least looked back to their competitive best against Arsenal in the latest round, drawing 1-1 and recording an xG of 1.77. However, their attacking mishaps will need to be addressed ahead of this showdown. They’ve only scored 24 goals from an xG of 25.73.
Brighton have been solid defensively this season, conceding just 21 goals from an open play xGA of 24.46. It’s worth noting before making an Ipswich vs Brighton prediction that both Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck are in contention to start on Thursday.
Bet hereIpswich’s new-found defensive structure will be tested against Brighton on Thursday, but the visitors have also been below their usual high standards in recent weeks.
McKenna’s men could be the outstanding chance based on their prowess on the counter-attack against a possession-based Brighton side. Meanwhile, the trends support that argument, as the guests are winless in their last four league matches against Ipswich.
Under 2.5 goals looks like a solid chance on Thursday. Ipswich have recorded fewer shots from open play than any other side in the Premier League this season. Their xG of 13.1 is the lowest in the competition. Therefore, while we like the chances of a home win, under 2.5 goals could be a viable insurance bet.
Alternatively, Liam Delap could be the outstanding scoring angle. The striker has scored eight from 19 appearances this season from an xG of 8.45. He averages 2.05 shots per 90, meaning if Ipswich are to win on Thursday, Delap will be at the heart of their chances.
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