Borussia Dortmund struggled last season, falling behind the top-4 teams in key performance indicators.
After a disappointing campaign, the club’s management decided to part ways with Edin Terzić with Nuri Şahin, who, despite being a former Dortmund player, lacks top-level coaching experience in the major European leagues. Before Dortmund, Şahin coached Antalyaspor from 2021 to 2023, a mid-table club in the Turkish Süper Lig.
This decision raised eyebrows, as the choices of coaches at Dortmund since the departure of Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel have not yielded success.
None of them were able to restore the club to a level where they could regularly compete for Bundesliga titles. However, in the 2022-2023 season, Dortmund had a chance to win the league, owing largely to Bayern München’s poor results.
In this year’s six pre-season matches, Dortmund secured three wins, demonstrating occasional powerful pressing and quick counter-attacks.
In the first round of the Bundesliga, Borussia defeated Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0, with 20-year-old Englishman Jamie Gittens making a significant impact by scoring twice. Overall, Şahin’s team relied on quick flank attacks with dangerous passes into the penalty area, where 2-3 Borussia attacking players made timely runs.
The individual talent of players such as Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi, and Jamie Gittens played a crucial role in creating chances.
However, Dortmund’s inconsistency showed again in the second round, where they suffered a 1-3 loss to Werder Bremen. The match exposed defensive vulnerabilities, as the backline made significant errors, and the team struggled to create dangerous opportunities going forward.
It’s too early to predict Borussia’s prospects under Nuri Şahin, but the team’s current performance does not offer much reason for optimism.
Frank Schmidt has been coaching Heidenheim for almost 17 years, setting a record for the longest tenure of any coach at a single club in German football history.
Last season, Heidenheim played in the Bundesliga for the first time in history and exceeded expectations by finishing in eighth place, earning a spot in the UEFA Conference League.
Interestingly, expected points statistics from understat.com indicate that Heidenheim should have finished in 16th place due to the second worst expected goals scored and the fifth worst expected goals conceded in the league.
However, due to excellent conversion of chances and great performance by goalkeeper Kevin Müller, Schmidt’s team secured a spot in the top ten after 27 matches and even managed to clinch a place in the Conference League at the end of the season.
In preseason, Heidenheim continued to build momentum, winning all eight games, including two wins in the Conference League and two wins at the start of the Bundesliga season.
Heidenheim capitalizes on opponents’ defensive errors and efficiently utilizes their attacking opportunities. However, Schmidt’s team regularly encounters problems in defense when trying to maintain a high offside line, which led to Augsburg and St. Pauli creating multiple chances against Kevin Müller.
There is a feeling that as the season progresses, Heidenheim may start conceding more goals, which may result in a decline in their form and results.
Bet hereIn the previous season, Dortmund failed to defeat Heidenheim in two matches, despite leading 2-0 at halftime in their home game, only to concede two goals in the second half.
Heidenheim played exceptionally well in the second half, creating numerous scoring opportunities and rightfully equalizing the score.
The reverse fixture ended 0-0 at the Voith-Arena, with both teams creating a minimal amount of chances.
All this leads to the thought that choosing Dortmund to win is quite risky, and a solid performance can be expected from the visiting team.
At the beginning of the current season, both teams regularly score goals, so it is quite possible to expect more than one goal in this match. Considering that Borussia Dortmund will be playing at home, I choose the option where the hosts do not lose.
In 20 consecutive matches, Heidenheim scored goals against their opponents, capitalizing on their mistakes. Given this trend, it’s quite possible that Schmidt’s team will be the first in the current season of the Bundesliga to score against Dortmund.
On the other hand, Borussia Dortmund’s attacking firepower should allow them to break through Heidenheim’s defense and score their first goal against the visitors in the Bundesliga 2024-25.
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