Greece are the surprise leaders in Group B of the top tier of the Nations League. They are hoping to kick on by picking up another positive result against the Netherlands at the Toumba Stadium.

Light changes expected from Greece following back-to-back wins

A shock 1-0 victory away to Germany last weekend moved Greece on to six points from two games. That result was the clearest sign yet that a promising new generation is starting to deliver under the guidance of experienced coach Ivan Jovanović.

A few changes are still likely here, given the high number of matches in this international window. Manolis Saliakas is expected to replace Giorgos Vagiannidis at right-back, with the latter carrying an injury. Fotis Ioannidis and Dimitrios Kourbelis could also come into the side.

Vangelis Pavlidis should continue up front. The 27-year-old has been prolific this season, with eight goals in seven league outings for Benfica.

Greece predicted lineup vs Netherlands (4-4-2): Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Androutsos, Kourbelis, Tzolis; Pavlidis, Ioannidis.

Xavi already making his mark for the Netherlands

After an early exit at the World Cup, the Netherlands turned to ex-Barcelona coach Xavi Hernández. The 46-year-old has made a bright start with a 2-1 victory in Serbia following on from a 1-1 draw against Germany.

Mexx Meerdink scored the two Dutch goals in Belgrade. The 23-year-old could be trusted to lead the line once more. He has also made an encouraging beginning to the campaign in the Eredivisie with three goals and two assists in seven outings for AZ.

Brian Brobbey’s injury withdrawal helped create the opportunity for Meerdink, while Cody Gakpo suffered an ankle problem against Serbia. He has now also pulled out of the squad, with Ruben van Bommel expected to take his place in the lineup.

Netherlands predicted lineup vs Greece (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, van de Ven; Gravenberch, Veerman; Summerville, Reijnders, van Bommel; Meerdink.

Greece vs Netherlands Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Greece to score over 0.5 goals
  • Odds: 1.31 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Greece 1-1 Netherlands
  • 22Bet Booking Code: LT9VR

Key stats:

  • Despite facing some strong opponents, Greece have scored in three of their past four matches.
  • All of the previous seven Netherlands fixtures have seen both teams find the net.
  • The visitors have conceded in all 10 games they’ve played so far in 2026.

Defensive weaknesses remain a concern for the Netherlands. Captain Virgil van Dijk is a declining force at the age of 35. Fellow defenders Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven took poor form into this international break, with their club Tottenham bottom of the Premier League.

Aside from the dangerous Pavlidis, Greece’s attacking threat is supplemented by Christos Tzolis, who has struck 10 times in 36 internationals. They’ve had 34 shots across their opening two Nations League fixtures. Backing the hosts to score over 0.5 goals is a safe pick in this game.

Greece vs Netherlands Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Greece to win or draw
  • Odds: 1.727 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: QAGXR

The Netherlands have been held to draws in three of their last six matches. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in nearly a year, since a 4-0 win over Lithuania last November.

Backing Greece to win or draw therefore offers value at odds of 1.727. Jovanović’s team have only lost one of their previous five internationals.

Verdict: Greece to score over 0.5 goals (1.31) — Greece 1-1 Netherlands