| Odds via 22Bet | |
| Chelsea vs Liverpool | Sunday, April 13, 2025, 17:30 GMT+1 |
| Chelsea odds | 2.17 |
| Liverpool odds | 3.15 |
| Draw | 3.6 |
| Over\Under | Total 2.5: 1.57/2.4 |
| Betting Bonus | Up to 122 $/€ |
Chelsea need points to seal Champions League qualification and must therefore risk a more open game than their coach generally prefers.
Chelsea’s late-season run has been characterised by narrow scorelines and territorial dominance. A 1-0 win over Tottenham on early April, a goalless draw at Brentford three days later, a chaotic 2-2 home stalemate with Ipswich, and last weekend’s nerve-jangling 1-0 victory against Everton illustrate their continuing struggle to convert volume possession into chances.
Squad health will shape selection. Chelsea remain without long-term absentee Wesley Fofana, whose latest hamstring surgery has ruled him out until next season, and Mykhailo Mudryk is still under suspension.
Malo Gusto is listed as a “major doubt”, but could make the bench.
Chelsea predicted lineup vs Liverpool (4-3-3): Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Enzo, Caicedo; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson
| Key Players to Watch | Cole Palmer, Nicholas Jackson |
| Team Strengths | Attacks against high pressing teams |
| Team Weaknesses | Injuries |
| Key injuries and suspensions | Wesley Fofana, Marc Guiu, Malo Gusto, Mykhailo Mudryk |
Newly-crowned champions Liverpool travel south buoyed by Arne Slot’s relentlessly vertical 4-2-3-1 and the freedom that comes with having already secured their 20th league title.
Liverpool’s final push to the title was confirmed by the 5-1 demolition of Tottenham, following a 1-0 away win over Leicester and a 2-1 success with West Ham.
For Liverpool, Trent Alexander-Arnold returned to full training last week after ankle trouble, while Darwin Núñez also shook off illness. Joe Gomez, however, remains out.
Liverpool predicted lineup vs Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz; Gakpo
| Key Players to Watch | Mohamed Salah |
| Team Strengths | Swift vertical attacks |
| Team Weaknesses | Lack of motivation |
| Key injuries and suspensions | Joe Gomez |
The rivalry’s recent balance tilts red: Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with Chelsea in all competitions and have conceded only eight goals in that span.
Overall, since 1995, Chelsea have 30 wins to Liverpool’s 28 in 84 encounters, a statistical dead heat emblematic of their modern jousts.
Cole Palmer has thrived in Maresca’s inside-right corridor, where his freedom to drop into midfield or drift into the left half-space destabilised opponents’ shape and provided a diagonal for Jackson.
Palmer’s ability to receive on the half-turn between the lines will test Liverpool’s counter-press, especially if Slot deploys his customary 4-2-4, leaving Curtis Jones to shuttle out toward Palmer when possession is lost.
With 27 goal involvements in 29 league outings, Mohamed Salah continues to profit from Slot’s narrower front three. His combinations with Luis Díaz and Cody Gakpo in high-tempo interchanges drag full-backs inside and open room for the inverted Alexander-Arnold. The Egyptian King scored twice against Spurs, finding space behind Destiny Udogie once Liverpool pinned Tottenham’s wing-backs with their own.
Moises Caicedo will try to screen Mo Salah’s inside runs. However, the Ecuadorian can become marooned if Enzo Fernández is lured away by Dominick Szoboszlai’s vertical surges.
Should Arne Slot start Trent Alexander-Arnold, the visitors may overload Chelsea’s left: Trent, Szoboszlai and Salah triangulate to drag Marc Cucurella narrow, opening a lane for Salah’s trademark diagonal burst.
Maresca could counter by instructing Levi Colwill to step into left flank, effectively becoming a left-half-back that shields the channel. Yet that risks exposing Trevoh Chalobah one-against-one against Cody Gakpo or Luis Diaz when Liverpool spring transitions.
Conversely, Chelsea’s clearest path to goal lies behind Liverpool’s high line. Slot compresses his side so aggressively that the back four often hold position on the halfway stripe, trusting Van Dijk’s sweeping and Ibrahima Konaté’s recovery pace.
Palmer’s floated passes over that line toward Jackson’s curved runs caused Everton headaches; repeat deliveries could strand Konaté if Jackson times the arc correctly. And also Arne Slot’s pressing trap around the centre-circle may tempt Enzo Maresca to vary the build-up with longer switches.
Bet hereThe sides’ current scoring trajectories suggest a match of chances.
Chelsea average 1.0 xG at home since late February, and Liverpool have generated 11 goals in their last five league fixtures.
Alexander-Arnold’s potential involvement enhances the champions’ ability to progress the ball, but it also increases Chelsea’s counter-attacking threat if he positions himself too far forward.
Whether Maresca can encourage enough vertical movement from his midfield to exploit the space behind Alexander-Arnold will determine if Chelsea can convert pressure into goals.
My expectation is an open, high-quality showdown in which Liverpool’s automatisms in the final third offset Chelsea’s territorial control.
With both units likely to push seven or eight men above the ball in settled possession, transitional phases should multiply. Chelsea’s last four league matches have all seen at least three “big chances” per Opta’s definition, and Liverpool’s off-ball shape under Slot almost invites an end-to-end dynamic once their press is beaten.
Considering the twin vulnerabilities in the channels between full-back and centre-back, backing goals at both ends offers the strongest value.
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