Match Overview

Celje host Ararat-Armenia on 11 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. Ararat-Armenia carry a 2-1 aggregate lead into this fixture following their first-leg victory, meaning Celje must overturn a one-goal deficit to stay in the competition. Ararat-Armenia need only avoid a two-goal defeat to advance to the next round.

Aggregate situation: Ararat-Armenia lead 2-1.

  • Celje advance outright with a win by 2+ goals (e.g., 2-0, 3-1).
  • Extra time is played if Celje win by exactly 1 goal (aggregate level at 2-2).
  • Ararat-Armenia advance with any win, draw, or a defeat by 1 goal.

Celje Analysis

Celje enter this second leg having lost the first leg 1-2 to Ararat-Armenia on 4 August, placing them in an immediate must-improve position at home. Their recent form reads LWD across their last three competitive outings — a loss in the first leg, a 1-1 win (on aggregate/away form) in the second leg of their previous round against Egnatia Rrogozhinë, and a 3-3 draw in the first leg of that same tie. Across those three matches, Celje have scored 7 goals and conceded 7, recording 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss — a balanced but unconvincing statistical profile.

They are capable of scoring, as the 3-3 draw demonstrates, but their defensive record offers little reassurance when they need a clean two-goal swing or at minimum a one-goal winning margin tonight.

Ararat-Armenia Analysis

Ararat-Armenia arrive in Slovenia with a one-goal aggregate cushion and the confidence of a winning first-leg performance. Their five-match form reads WLWLW — alternating results, but with three wins overall including victories over Shamrock Rovers (2-0) and Riga (2-0) in earlier rounds, plus the 2-1 win over Celje last week. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 6 across five matches, with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses.

The absence of any draws in their recent record is notable — their matches tend to produce a defined winner — which could be relevant in a tie where Ararat need only to avoid being overrun.

Key players:

  • Zidane Banjaqui — 0g 1a in 5 apps
  • Sandro Lima — 1g 0a in 5 apps
  • Z. Shaghoyan — 1g 0a in 4 apps
  • João Bravim — 0g 0a in 0 apps
  • K. Hovhannisyan — 0g 0a in 3 apps

Sandro Lima is the team's top scorer with 1 goal.

Comparison

Ararat-Armenia's attacking output edges Celje's — 9 goals scored to Celje's 7 — while conceding fewer as well (6 vs. 7), giving them a marginal edge on both ends of the pitch based on available data.

Ararat-Armenia also hold a superior win rate (3 wins in 5 matches vs. Celje's 1 win in 3), and crucially, they already defeated Celje in this exact matchup seven days ago.

Celje's home advantage is the primary factor working in their favour, but they must generate a performance significantly better than the first leg to progress.

Key Factors

  • Ararat-Armenia won the first leg 2-1 and enter this second leg needing only to avoid a two-goal defeat to advance outright.
  • Celje have not kept a clean sheet in their last three matches, raising doubts about whether they can shut out Ararat-Armenia while simultaneously chasing goals.
  • Ararat-Armenia have zero draws in their last five matches, suggesting their games rarely end in stalemate — a pattern that could either help or hurt Celje depending on which team imposes themselves.
  • The H2H record across completed matches — Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (2026) and Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (2020) — shows Ararat have not lost to Celje in any recorded encounter.
  • Sandro Lima, Ararat-Armenia's top scorer this campaign, adds a further attacking outlet beyond the team's overall scoring numbers.

Prediction

  • Main pick: Ararat-Armenia to advance (Double Chance: Draw or Ararat-Armenia Win) — Ararat-Armenia need only avoid a two-goal defeat, making them strong favourites to progress given their aggregate lead and unbeaten H2H record against Celje.
  • Alternative pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes — Celje must score to stay in the tie, and Ararat-Armenia's attack — including top scorer Sandro Lima — has been consistent enough to threaten even when managing a lead.
  • Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals — The first leg produced exactly 3 goals (2-1), and with Ararat-Armenia likely to adopt a more conservative shape protecting their lead, a tightly contested second leg with 2 goals total appears plausible.
  • Predicted score: Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia — Aggregate: Celje 2, Ararat-Armenia 3. Ararat-Armenia advance outright.
  • Confidence level: 5/10 — The aggregate situation clearly favours Ararat-Armenia, but the absence of Celje player data and the unpredictability of knockout football under pressure introduce meaningful uncertainty.