| Odds via 22Bet | |
| Brighton vs Newcastle | Sunday, May 4, 2025, 15:00 GMT+1 |
| Brighton odds | 2.81 |
| Newcastle odds | 2.31 |
| Draw | 3.76 |
| Over\Under | Total 2.5: 1.60/2.33 |
| Betting Bonus | Up to 122 $/€ |
Brighton’s late 3-2 swing against West Ham on Saturday felt cathartic after three winless outings. The victory did little to disguise a mounting defensive crisis for Fabian Hürzeler.
Jan-Paul van Hecke remains under concussion protocol supervision after the sickening head clash at Brentford a week earlier. Joel Veltman’s return from a five-week foot lay-off is timely.
Brighton’s month began with a bruising 0-3 home loss to Villa. It further deteriorated with a 2-1 capitulation at Palace, and a chaotic 2-2 with Leicester, before the Brentford setback and Saturday’s turnaround against West Ham. They’ve leaked 13 goals in that five-game stretch, more than any top-half side.
In terms of injuries, Igor Julio and Adam Webster are sidelined, leaving Hürzeler short of natural centre-backs. In midfield, Carlos Baleba partners Jack Hinshelwood in the “empty-six” structure that asks both to stagger and vacate the pivot lane. It’s one of their head coach’s trademark automatisms.
João Pedro is available after serving the suspension picked up in that Brentford defeat. The coach is expected to keep faith with the roaming wing pairing of
Yankuba Minteh and Kaoru Mitoma in line with Danny Welbeck.
Brighton predicted lineup vs Newcastle (5-3-2): Verbruggen; Wieffer, Dunk, Veltman, Estupinan, Hinshelwood; Baleba, Minteh, Pedro; Mitoma, Welbeck.
Newcastle arrive on the south coast encouraged by Eddie Howe’s recovery from pneumonia and their recent performance. They secured four wins in five matches, including a convincing 3-0 victory over Ipswich Town last Sunday.
Although Howe acknowledges he is “still not 100 percent,” his team’s combination of wing pressure and a dynamic midfield has propelled Newcastle into third place, nine points ahead of Brighton.
Their April told the incredible story: a clinical 3-0 at Leicester, a raucous 4-1 over United, a Palace demolition (5-0), the Villa blip (1-4), and a composed 3-0 stroll past Ipswich. Newcastle’s tally of 18 goals tops the division for the month.
In terms of injuries, Howe’s squad picture is brighter. Fabian Schär shook off a minor hamstring scare to start the 3-0 win over Ipswich, and Sven Botman is the long-term absentee. Matt Targett aggravated a thigh issue in training and is out for the season, so Dan Burn continues at left-back.
Newcastle predicted lineup vs Brighton (3-4-2-1): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn; Livramento, Guimaraes, Tonali, Willock; Murphy, Isak; Gordon.
Bet hereNewcastle’s high press is engineered to punish the very build-out automatisms that make Hürzeler’s men watchable but fragile. With Bruno Guimarães able to shadow Baleba and force hurried passes, Howe can funnel turnovers to Gordon and Murphy on the flanks.
Brighton’s left side, minus Van Hecke, will have to over-rotate, leaving space for Isak to dart between defenders. Although Albion’s fluid front four will test Schär’s and Burn`s positional discipline, Newcastle’s rest-defence has stiffened. Nick Pope’s play adds aerial insurance.
The visitors’ superior edge in both boxes should turn territorial parity into tangible supremacy.
Brighton’s commitment to a daring 3-2 rest-defence, plus Newcastle’s wing overloads, screams end-to-end football.
Moreover, the hosts’ last 11 Premier League games have all featured over 2.5 goals, highlighting their proactive and attacking style of play. Newcastle mirrors this trend, with their previous seven encounters across all competitions surpassing the 2.5-goal mark.
Considering the data, the Total Over 2.5 presents a good betting choice for Sunday’s match.
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