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Brentford vs Manchester City | Tuesday, January 14, 2025. 19:30 GMT |
Brentford odds | 4.50 |
Manchester City odds | 1.64 |
Draw | 4.50 |
Over\Under | Total 2,5: 1.36/2.93 |
Thomas Frank’s Brentford will try to get their season back on track when they host Manchester City this Tuesday. The squad suffered an embarrassing FA Cup exit on Saturday, losing 1-0 to Plymouth at home.
Frank could deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Bryan Mbeumo and Kevin Schade operating in the wing-back areas. Rico Henry returned to first-team action on Saturday, but Aaron Hickey remains absent.
Due to their attacking qualities, Brentford have outperformed their 29.46 xG, netting 32 goals from open play. However, they’re underperforming in terms of xGA, allowing their high score from a metric of 29.44.
Recent Form (all competitions, most recent first) | L-W-L-D-L |
Key Players to Watch | Bryan Mbeumo |
Team Strengths | Strong attacking quality from the wide areas |
Team Weaknesses | Inconsistent form is a major concern |
Injuries and Suspensions | Ben Mee (Other), Ethan Pinnock (Thigh), Joshua Dasilva (Knee), Aaron Hickey (Thigh) |
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have bounced back to form in recent weeks, winning each of their last three games. However, it still appears that the champions’ grip on the Premier League title will end this season.
The head coach has battled off-field issues throughout January, with questions lingering over Kyle Walker and Kevin De Bruyne’s long-term futures. City have scored 30 goals from an xG of 31.82, and Erling Haaland has been back among the triumphs in recent weeks.
Stefan Ortega could return to the starting line-up after being rested in their 8-0 FA Cup win over Salford City on Saturday. Manchester’s defensive record remains strong, conceding only 22 goals from an xGA of 26.59.
Recent Form (all competitions, most recent first) | W-W-W-D-L |
Key Players to Watch | Erling Haaland |
Team Strengths | World-class attacking quality |
Team Weaknesses | Defensively vulnerable in the absence of Rodri |
Injuries and Suspensions | John Stones (Ankle), Ruben Dias (Calf), Oscar Bobb (Calf), Rodrigo Hernández (ACL) |
The head-to-head record paints a grim picture for the hosts when making a Brentford vs Manchester City prediction. The Bees have kept a clean sheet in only one of their last seven EPL matches against the champions. That came in a 1-0 win in May 2023.
However, Manchester have conceded the opening goal in four previous encounters against Brentford. But they came back to win the reverse fixture earlier in the season after the Bees opened the scoring in the first 22 seconds.
Bet hereSavinho has been a star performer for Manchester City since the champions returned to winning ways. The Brazilian has recorded one goal and five assists in 17 Premier League outings this term and is a key threat to Brentford from wide areas.
The young talent has averaged 2.73 shots and 2.56 key passes per 90 minutes. He could be an excellent chance to register an assist on Tuesday, recording an xA of 4.83.
Brentford have held their own against the best teams in the Premier League this season. Most recently, they enjoyed 51% of the ball in an ultimate defeat against Arsenal.
However, City’s possession-based game makes it hard to prevent them from dominating the ball against Brentford. The hosts will look to use their abilities in the counterattack. Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are likely to spring into action should the Bees win the ball high up the field.
Manchester need to break down their opposition’s defence when holding the ball, with Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne forcing the openings.
Brentford’s excellent attacking record means we foresee them finding the back of the net. However, the champions have looked back to their best in the attacking third of the field in recent weeks.
Erling Haaland will be back in the starting eleven after being rested against Salford, and he has an excellent scoring record against the home side. Meanwhile, it’s challenging to overlook Brentford’s poor home form after losing two on the bounce at the Gtech Community Stadium.
The stats indicate that this should be a low-card affair. Manchester have averaged just 2.1 cards per game in the Premier League this season, while Brentford have normalised a competition-low of 1.50. Therefore, under 3.5 goals looks like a solid chance on Tuesday.
Frank’s squad to score at least once could be a solid angle this week, too. His men have scored in four of their previous Premier League encounters against the champions. They also have a reliable shot conversation rate.
Brentford have the third-highest shot conversion rate in the competition this season, with only Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers ranking better.
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