Andoni Iraola deserves enormous credit for the job he’s doing at Bournemouth. The Cherries could enhance their European prospects with a home win over West Ham on Monday. Bournemouth have won each of their last three, and a victory against the Hammers could see them move within a point of the Champions League positions.
Meanwhile, a win would mark the first time they’ve won four on the bounce since December 2023. Bournemouth have won four of their last five home matches in the Premier League. However, they’ll be without key defensive players this week, with Marcos Senesi and Julián Araujo ruled out due to injury.
Despite their eye-catching results, Bournemouth are still underperforming in their xG and xGA metrics. They scored 14 goals from an xG of 24.79 and conceded 17 from an xGA of 16.28. However, their xG metric has been strong in recent outings, including when they accumulated a metric of 3.49 in their 2-1 win at Ipswich last Sunday.
Julen Lopetegui will be aware that he’s still under pressure to turn West Ham’s season around despite a much-needed victory at home against Wolves last Monday. The Hammers continue to sit in the bottom half of the standings, but they have a six-point advantage over the relegation places.
West Ham’s record in matches played on Monday also deserves attention. They’ve won nine of their last ten, including victories over Newcastle and Wolves this season. The Hammers have accumulated an xG of 19.12 from open play, scoring just 13 goals.
Michail Antonio’s absence will negatively impact West Ham’s chances in the final third this week. However, the East London club does have a strong defensive record, conceding just 21 goals from an xGA of 25.04 from open play. In addition to Antonio, West Ham will be without the suspended Emerson on Monday.
Bet hereThere could be value in siding with the away win when making a Bournemouth vs West Ham prediction this week.
The Hammers have an excellent record in Premier League matches played on Mondays, and the East London club are also unbeaten in their last six matches against the Cherries.
Bournemouth has typically struggled against sides that deploy a deep backline. However, West Ham’s quality on the counterattack, with players such as Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, makes them an interesting play at the available odds.
Goals could be in short supply at the Vitality Stadium on Monday. Bournemouth have performed well against teams with a more expansive style, but against defensive-minded sides, they’ve struggled. That was evident against Leicester in October, accumulating an xG of just 1.95.
West Ham will play a defensive style and bid to attack Bournemouth on the counter-attack. Therefore, under 2.5 goals looks like a standout selection.
Meanwhile, Tomáš Souček could be an interesting selection for finding the back of the net. The midfielder has scored four goals from an xG of 3.25 this season and averages 2.64 shots per game. The fact that Bournemouth conceded an xGA of 4.04 from corners could make Souček a decent bet to make the difference for the Hammers.
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