Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Preview, Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips 23.11.2024

• Date and Time: November 23, 14:30 GMT+1
• Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Preview

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund continues to demonstrate completely different results when playing at Signal Iduna Park compared to away matches.

At home, Nuri Şahin’s team has won all seven of their matches this season, boasting an eye-catching goal difference of 21-5. Dortmund is the clear leader in the Bundesliga for both points and expected points in home matches. 

The team displays remarkable intensity and organization in their pressing, evidenced by their 8.85 PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action). Dortmund’s attacking approach is equally impressive, with five to six players regularly flooding the penalty area during their lightning-quick transitions.

In their recent home match against Leipzig, currently second in the Bundesliga, Dortmund had a commanding advantage in both shots and dangerous scoring opportunities.

However, Dortmund’s away form tells a completely different story. They have lost their last six matches with a total score of 6-18. At the beginning of the season, Dortmund secured an away draw against Werder Bremen and achieved a 3-0 victory over Brugge, but their situation has greatly worsened since then.

Under Şahin, the team has yet to win an away match in the Bundesliga. They have recorded one draw and suffered four losses. This poor performance places them among the worst teams in away matches regarding both goals scored and expected goals scored. Additionally, they rank 17th out of 18 teams in terms of goals conceded.

Furthermore, the PPDA’s pressing intensity stands at 12.01, which is noticeably lower than their home performance. Overall, Borussia Dortmund exhibits less intense pressing in away games, allowing opponents more time and space to penetrate the Dortmund defense. 

Borussia struggles to consistently create effective combinations that result in scoring opportunities during away games, which explains their inability to consistently find the back of the net.

The good news for Dortmund fans is that their next match is at Signal Iduna Park. At home, they have been virtually unstoppable. This makes them the clear favorites and allows Şahin’s team to rediscover their best football.

Freiburg

Unlike Borussia Dortmund, Freiburg’s results are more balanced between home and away fixtures. Under coach Julian Schuster, they have earned one more point than Dortmund, currently sitting in fifth place, just three points shy of the coveted third spot in the Bundesliga standings.

Freiburg confidently collects points against mid-table teams and relegation candidates in the Bundesliga, demonstrating a solid defensive performance and well-planned vertical attacks. In terms of expected goals conceded, they rank second behind Bayern Munich, and they are third in expected points in the Bundesliga.

These impressive results stem from their impeccable organization in the defensive phase and their ability to transition quickly and variably from defense to attack.

Even in their away losses against RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, Freiburg performed well, creating problems for their opponents. They could have earned draws in those matches had they converted their scoring opportunities.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction

• Pick: 1X (Borussia Dortmund won`t lose)
• Odds: 1.22 (22Bet)
• Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Freiburg

Borussia Dortmund are clearly the favorites in this match. Die Borussen are likely to demonstrate a strong attacking performance at home with intense pressing. 

Jamie Gittens, Julian Brandt, and Serhou Guirassy have all shown excellent form in their home games this season, making it difficult to see how Freiburg’s defense can contain them across 90 minutes.

That said, Freiburg are no pushovers. Under Julian Schuster, the Breisgau-Brasilianer are capable of displaying a well-organized defensive style and executing high-speed counterattacks, which could pose problems for Dortmund’s vulnerable defense.

Therefore, I prefer a safer option, predicting that Borussia Dortmund will not lose this match.

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction, Betting Tip

• Pick: Both Teams To Score
• Odds: 1.58 (22Bet)

At home, Borussia Dortmund have consistently scored two or more goals per match this season. Given their attacking firepower, it’s reasonable to expect them to score in this game as well.

Freiburg, on the other hand, have created and converted dangerous opportunities, even against Bundesliga heavyweights like RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich. 

Meanwhile, Dortmund’s defensive vulnerabilities cannot be ignored, having conceded at least one goal in their last four home fixtures.

With both teams boasting attacking quality and Dortmund’s tendency to concede at home, the best prediction for this encounter is that both teams will score.

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