Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen will be aiming to end a three-game drawing sequence on Saturday. A title challenge already looks unlikely after an inconsistent start to the season, as they are currently nine points off the pace being set by Bayern Munich.
Once again, Alonso will deploy his favoured 3-4-2-1 formation, with Victor Boniface deployed down the middle. Leverkusen have been vulnerable in open play this season, conceding an xGA of 7.94, and allowing eleven goals from 83 shots.
Going forward, Leverkusen will also have issues to address, scoring just 14 goals from 121 shots and an xG of 15.68. Alonso will have no fresh injury concerns this weekend, with Edmond Tapsoba and Amine Adli’s injuries being picked up before the international break.
It has been a testing start to the season for Heidenheim, and their recent form would raise questions after losing four of their last five. At present, the German side sits just five points clear of the automatic relegation spots.
Scoring goals has been their biggest issue this term, netting just seven from 88 shots in open play. The quality of the chances created are also below the standard needed, evidenced by their xG of 8.38.
However, it could be worth noting before making a Bayer Leverkusen vs Heidenheim prediction that defensively, they have impressed in open play, restricting rivals to an xGA of just 12.47, and outperforming the metric after conceding ten goals from 93 shots.
Thomas Keller faces a late fitness test to feature this weekend, but first-team stars such as Paul Wanner, Marnon Busch, and Luka Janes all remain out until the start of next month.
Bet hereHeidenheim’s defensive approach will likely cause some issues for Leverkusen this weekend, especially given that Alonso’s side hasn’t been at their clinical best this term.
That being said, Leverkusen still boast the quality to eventually make their advantage count, meaning that they are preferred to win by a two-goal margin.
Heidenheim will enhance their chances of getting something from the game if they can go into the break level, but Leverkusen’s dominant record in second periods means that they should still get over the line and get the points that they require to close the gap on Bayern Munich at the summit.
Florian Wirtz has continued his excellent scoring sequence during the international break with Germany, and he could make the difference once again against Heidenheim.
The attacking midfielder has scored four times in ten appearances this season, and he has averaged 3.46 shots per 90 minutes this season. He is also out-performing his xG metric of 3.88 in the Bundesliga.
Meanwhile, under 4.5 cards could be an interesting football prediction this weekend. Leverkusen and Heidenheim both have good disciplinary records, with the hosts averaging 2.1 cards per game, and Heidenheim averaging 2.3 per match.
Interestingly, both sides have rarely had over 4.5 cards in their matches this season, with Leverkusen matches breaching this benchmark in just 20% of their matches, and the visitors exceeding 4.5 cards in 40% of their matches.
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