Atlético Madrid’s first outing in the 2026/27 La Liga season is at the Estadio Metropolitano on Wednesday. They are hoping to avoid an upset against newly promoted Málaga.

Atlético Madrid short on attacking options for season opener

Many of Diego Simeone’s players were involved until the final weekend of the World Cup. That could have an impact on his first Atlético Madrid teamsheet of the new campaign, with Spain internationals Marcos Llorente and Álex Baena potentially only making the bench.

There is also a strong Argentine contingent in the Atleti squad, including Cristian Romero, who has just completed a €40m transfer from Tottenham. He may be among the subs, along with compatriot Julián Álvarez, who has been openly pushing for a move to Barcelona.

The hosts have an additional fitness concern over Alexander Sørloth, which leaves them short on options up top. Ademola Lookman may be used as an emergency striker. The Nigeria international impressed with four goals in 12 league appearances following a January move to Los Rojiblancos.

Atlético Madrid predicted lineup vs Málaga (3-4-1-2): Oblak; Hancko, Le Normand, Pubill; Grimaldo, Koke, Barrios, Simeone; Lee; Lookman, Ortiz.

Selection issues hamper Málaga on top-flight return

Málaga haven’t played in La Liga since the 2017/18 season, but they sealed promotion via the play-offs last term. Coach Juan Francisco Funes has built a competitive young team who are heading into the new campaign as one of the clear relegation favourites.

A lack of recruitment so far this summer is one reason for that, along with injuries on matchday one. Carlos Dotor, Fernando Calero, Diego Murillo and Adrián Niño are all sidelined. Juanpe Jiménez and Moussa Diarra are rated doubtful.

Midfielder Aarón Ochoa is an additional absentee due to suspension. Chupe, who has netted 28 times in 58 appearances for the Andalusian club, should lead the line.

Málaga predicted lineup vs Atlético Madrid (4-3-3): Herrero; Puga, Recio, Galilea, Salinas; Rodríguez, Merino, Lorenzo; Joaquín, Chupe, Larrubia.

Atlético Madrid vs Málaga Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Under 3.5 goals
  • Odds: 1.38 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Atlético Madrid 2-0 Málaga
  • 22Bet Booking Code: QHXH6

Key stats:

  • Five of Málaga’s last six competitive games produced two or fewer goals.
  • Atlético Madrid kept a clean sheet in 42% of their home league matches last term.
  • Four of the previous six meetings between the clubs finished with just one goal.

With Antoine Griezmann no longer at the club, and with doubts over whether either Sørloth or Alvarez will be ready to start, Atlético Madrid have few convincing options up front. Despite their clear superiority in terms of overall quality, they may struggle to finish chances and secure a big victory.

Backing Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.38 using the 22Bet bonus of up to 122 $/€ is the smart move. That was a winning bet in 71% of Málaga’s road fixtures in the 2025/26 Segunda División.

Atlético Madrid vs Málaga Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Málaga to score under 0.5 goals
  • Odds: 1.727 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: CUYH6

While there haven’t been many recent meetings, Atlético Madrid won their last five encounters against Málaga, keeping four clean sheets.

They offer value to shut the newly promoted side out in this game once more at odds of 1.727. Simeone’s team didn’t concede in any of their home fixtures against last season’s bottom four in La Liga.

Verdict: Under 3.5 goals (1.38) — Atlético Madrid 2-0 Málaga