Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Preview, Prediction, Odds, Betting Tips 23.11.2024

• Date and Time: November 23, 16:15 GMT+1
• Venue: Civitas Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

Atlético de Madrid

Atlético de Madrid are currently third in La Liga, only one point behind archrivals Real Madrid and seven points behind Barcelona. 

Atlético defeated Mallorca (0-1) in the last match before the November international break. Julian Álvarez scored in the 61st minute, while Mallorca couldn’t find the net despite thirteen attempts. Overall, the two teams generated a similar xG (0.61 for Mallorca, 0.65 for Atlético). 

Los Rojiblancos have remained undefeated in their last four fixtures. They progressed against Vic in the Copa del Rey (2-0), defeated Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League (1-2), and won at home against Las Palmas (2-0) before the Mallorca game. 

Diego Simeone will be without Robin Le Normand, Thomas Lemar and Borjas Garces, while Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Llorente are working on their recovery. 

Le Normand has returned to training, and his importance in the backline cannot be overstated. 

Transfer rumours have started to appear recently, and Atlético have been linked to players who could replace Antoine Griezmann in the future. Several centre-backs have also caught Atlético’s attention, as the club is looking for a backup to replace Clément Lenglet and Robin Le Normand.

Deportivo Alavés

Deportivo lost five consecutive games in October but broke this negative streak with a 1-0 victory against Mallorca. However, they suffered another loss in their most recent match against Villarreal (3-0). Alavés are currently 15th in La Liga with 13 points and a -8 goal difference. 

These poor results reflect a lack of attacking efficiency, as Kike García and Jon Guridi have been unable to capitalize on the team’s momentum. Protesoni and Hugo Novoa won’t be available for the match, both sidelined with injuries, further diminishing their chances of a positive result against Atlético. 

Alavés struggle to contain counter-attacks. The defence is not compact enough, and the team records one of the worst NPxGA (Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against) in La Liga: 16.74 (according to Understat). Only six teams perform worse in that category: Valencia, Leganes, Osasuna, Espanyol, Las Palmas, and Real Valladolid. Four of these teams are behind Alavés in the league table. 

Alavés is also one of the clubs in Spain supporting victims of the DANA flood. The club is collecting donations, especially clothes and other essential materials.

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Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction

• Prediction: Atlético de Madrid to win
• Odds: 1.37 (22Bet)
• Score Prediction: Atlético de Madrid 2-0 Deportivo Alavés

Matches between Atlético and Alavés rarely end up in a goal-fest. However, Atlético have won a majority of the matches in the last twenty years. Los Rojiblancos have registered ten victories, while Alavés have only won twice. The two teams also drew four times, though Alavés won the last encounter in April (2-0).

Atlético de Madrid often struggle against defensive formations who are happy to just defend, but this game is expected to be different with an in-form Julian Álvarez. 

The team’s recent matches against similar opposition, such as Mallorca, were uninspiring, with the wing-backs expected to play a key role in overloading the flanks. Alavés lacks the confidence to play their best game, which could play to Atlético’s advantage.

Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Betting Tip

• Pick: Julian Alvarez to score first
• Odds: 3.16(22Bet)

Julian Álvarez may have struggled to adapt in his first month at Atlético, but he is slowly finding his rhythm. 

Álvarez registered four goals and one assist in nine starts, despite the team’s struggles to create chances. He scored the only goal against Mallorca and had a great game against Paraguay despite Argentina’s defeat (2-1). 

His mobility would allow Atlético de Madrid to find off-the-ball runners in counter-attacks, which can either free up space for another teammate (Antoine Griezmann) or lead him to find an opportunity in the box by himself. His ball-striking ability remains phenomenal, making it an important asset against compact defensive blocks like Alavés.

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