Atalanta begin the Conference League league phase against Pafos at Stadio Di Bergamo on October 15. The Cypriot visitors dropped into the competition after losing in Europa League qualifying.

Atalanta Back to Winning Ways

Maurizio Sarri has endured a mixed start to the season with Atalanta, as the Serie A club have lost three of their last four. However, they recorded a much-needed win in their latest domestic outing against Venezia.

Marco Carnesecchi will continue in goal due to an injury to Thomas Pompei, allowing five goals in the last three.

Their poor defensive form has been partly due to injuries to Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, and Giorgio Scalvini. Thomas Kristensen and Sead Kolasinac will play in the heart of the defence.

Atalanta predicted lineup vs Pafos (4-2-3-1): Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Kolasinac, Zappacosta; Kessie, Ederson; Elmas, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Krstovic

Defensively Solid Pafos Proving Hard to Beat

Pafos beat Dinamo City 5-3 on aggregate after extra time in the play-off to secure their place in the league phase.

The Cypriot club have been in reliable recent form, avoiding defeat in seven of their last eight domestically, a run that stretches back to August 27. A key reason for their success has been their defensive quality, keeping four clean sheets in six.

Lelê will lead the line after scoring three in five. Vlad Dragomir is a doubt, meaning Ken Sema could return, registering one goal in his last five starts.

Pafos predicted lineup vs Atalanta (4-5-1): Majecki; Zague, Luiz, Mmaee, Ioannou; Quina, Sunjic, Biel, Pêpê, Sema; Lelê

Atalanta vs Pafos Prediction

  • Safe Tip: Atalanta to Win
  • Odds: 1.392 (22Bet)
  • Correct score prediction: Atalanta 2-0 Pafos
  • 22Bet Booking Code: NLM5N

Key stats:

  • Atalanta have won three of their previous four fixtures at Stadio Di Bergamo in 2026-27.
  • Pafos have failed to win in three European matches away from home this season, including qualifiers.
  • Atalanta have bounced back to winning ways, ending a three-game losing run.

An Atalanta win is a logical angle this week, especially considering their return to form on Monday. The Italian club have typically been competitive in higher European competitions, winning three of their six home matches in last season’s Champions League.

Sarri’s switch to a 4-2-3-1 paid off against Venezia, with all three goals coming inside 31 minutes. In contrast, Pafos typically struggle on the European stage, as shown in the Europa League and Conference League qualifying rounds this season, where they have lost two of their three away fixtures.

The main risk is a Pafos defence that has shut out opponents in two-thirds of its recent domestic matches. However, the Italian hosts are more accustomed to facing higher-quality rivals, making them the standout play at 1.392.

Atalanta vs Pafos Prediction, Value Tip

  • Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – No (BTTS - No)
  • Odds: 1.916 (22Bet)
  • 22Bet Booking Code: Y8GNN

Pafos may excel domestically, but their failure to score in two away European matches this season shows they struggle to make an offensive impression against better teams.

Atalanta’s home defensive record against stronger domestic opposition this season is reliable, keeping one clean sheet in their previous three.

La Dea have also kept clean sheets in both qualifying matches of the Conference League, extending the defensive prowess they showed in Europe last season. They had kept three shutouts in eight UCL League Phase encounters against much better teams than they will face in Europe’s third-highest-ranked competition this season.

Therefore, BTTS - No is an excellent value angle at 1.916.

Verdict: Atalanta to Win (1.392) — Atalanta 2-0 Pafos.