Unai Emery’s squad enter the FA Cup in the third round this weekend as the West Midlands side chase their first significant honour in 30 years. Emery has progressed Villa since his takeover, but their league form has dipped over the festive period after winning just once in their last three.
The injuries are also beginning to mount up, with both John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey ruled out this weekend. However, the club are well stocked at the top of the field, and Morgan Rogers looks ready to return on Friday.
Despite their excellent quality in the final third, the xG metric shows that they’re underperforming after scoring 21 goals from an xG of 26.07. Meanwhile, they’re also allowing high-quality chances, evident from an xGA of 24.21. However, the home advantage against West Ham this weekend could improve their chances of reaching the fourth round of the FA Cup.
Julen Lopetegui’s time at West Ham is over, as he was fired on Wednesday after only six months at the club. Graham Potter has taken over now after he signed a contract for 2.5 years.
Performances under Lopetegui had been underwhelming throughout the season, especially considering that big money was spent during the summer. A lack of quality in the final third has been evident throughout the campaign, as West Ham have scored just 15 goals from an xG of 24.11.
An immediate change in these fortunes under Potter is unlikely on Friday, as the Hammers will be without Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio. The team have at least been slightly stronger defensively based on an xGA of 36.14. They’ve conceded 30 goals from open play.
Bet herePotter is unlikely to cast a spell that will solve all of West Ham’s issues, meaning the same defensive mistakes and poor attacking output are likely at Villa Park.
Emery’s home record has remained strong this season, with his squad’s only defeat being suffered at the hands of Arsenal.
The returning Morgan Rogers will spark a revival in the final third for the West Midlands club. They’ll likely improve their cup record under Emery with a straightforward win in Birmingham against a toothless West Ham side.
A West Ham vs Aston Villa draw prediction for Friday should be feasible due to the latter’s defensive record on home soil. The visitor’s chances of scoring are negatively impacted because of Bowen and Antonio’s absence. They’ve registered xGs of 1.9, 0.52, and 1.53 across their latest three matches.
Jhon Duran could be an interesting goalscorer option on Friday. The Colombian will be handed a start in the cup, and he has taken his chances this term. Duran has already scored seven goals in 18 league appearances from an xG of 4.96 and averages 4.83 shots per 90.
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