Model V3 rates this as one of the higher-scoring fixtures of the round. Argentina are averaging 2.3 expected goals per ninety minutes across the group stage, built on a front three that combines for over eleven shots a game. Cape Verde Islands, playing their first ever World Cup knockout match, have shown they can compete for long stretches but have leaked chances from wide areas whenever they've had to chase a game.
The model doesn't expect a rout — Cape Verde's low block has held for whole halves against stronger opposition before — but the combination of Argentina's shot volume and Cape Verde's tendency to open up once behind pushes the total goals distribution comfortably past 2.5.
The pick: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.90 — graded a win. The match finished 3-2, Argentina's front three combining for all three goals while Cape Verde's own attack punished the space left behind on the counter twice. Five goals in one match is exactly the kind of open, end-to-end game the model's shot-volume signal was pointing at.