The Race for the Top Four in the Premier League: Who Will Secure Champions League Football?

The race for European football in the Premier League promises to be one of the most engaging narratives to follow for the remainder of the top-flight season in England. Liverpool look home and hosed in the race for the title, while the clubs locked in the relegation places have shown little fightback in their battle to avoid the drop. 

Due to European rankings, the PL is currently on course to earn five places in next season’s Champions League. 

However, teams still hope for a top-four finish to secure their place in Europe’s premier competition this term. Which sides are to be in pole position to achieve that finish?

Forest In Box Seat

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest appear to be the team to beat. They are bidding to compete in Europe for the first time since playing in the UEFA Cup in 1980-81. 

The Tricky Trees enjoyed a famous win over Manchester City before the international break. That victory gave them a six-point advantage over the reigning champions, who are fifth with just nine rounds of fixtures remaining in 2024-25.

A finish among the CL spots would be a remarkable reverse in their fortunes. Nottingham have been more used to battling against relegation in previous seasons since gaining promotion back to the Premier League. 

They could be seven wins from finishing third in the standings, and a push to overtake Arsenal in second would also be difficult to dismiss. 

City’s Drop Off

After Forest’s win at home to City and the champion’s inability to get over the line against Brighton, it’s easy to foresee the battle for fourth being between Chelsea and Manchester City. 

It would have been unthinkable at the start of the season that Pep Guardiola’s chances would finish as low as fifth in the standings. Their inconsistent form throughout the campaign has been a significant concern. 

A sign of their deterioration this term is City’s nine-point drop from winning positions at the Etihad, their most since the 2008-09 campaign. However, the fixture list appears to be kind to them for the remainder of the season. They can look forward to home games against Leicester and Crystal Palace before trips to Southampton and Fulham to end the campaign. 

Chelsea In Pole Position For Fourth

In truth, very few experts would have given Chelsea much hope of a Champions League finish this season, but the progress made under Enzo Maresca has been noticeable. In December, the Blues were muted as potential title contenders before their form considerably dropped off throughout 2025.

Chelsea hold the coveted fourth at this stage. However, Cole Palmer’s poor form has been reflected by the club’s inconsistent results on the field after losing three of their last five. 

With one of the most grueling fixture lists, Maresca’s squad have an uphill battle to finish in the top four. They will face Tottenham, Brentford, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester United before a final-day assignment at the City Ground against Nottingham Forest. 

Newcastle: The Dark Horse?

Brighton, Fulham, and Aston Villa could yet put together a run of results to challenge for the top four, but the most serious contender might be Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. The Magpies ended their long wait for major silverware in the EFL Cup final after claiming a dominant 2-1 win over Liverpool at Wembley. 

That success could drive them to pick up the points required for a second Champions League finish in three seasons. It could also have the reverse impact, of course. All eyes will be on their next two fixtures against Brentford and Leicester. 

Wins in these matches will put them in a strong position for Champions League qualification before encounters with European rivals like Aston Villa and Arsenal before a final-day clash with Everton.