It promises to be an exciting race for qualification spots in Group H, and two of the main contenders for a top-two finish will meet on Sunday. Northern Ireland will have home advantage, as they welcome Finland.
The pressure will be on Northern Ireland for this qualifying matchup on Sunday, as they will be aware that winning their home matches could be crucial for their chances of finishing in the top two places in Group H. Northern Ireland last reached the EUROs in 2016, as they claimed six wins from ten matches in qualifying. However, their form since that achievement has gone down hill.
In the most recent round of Nations League matches last year, they could only finish third after winning just once in six matches. Overall last year, they registered two victories from eight matches, with their only non-competitive success coming on the road against Luxembourg. However, their shortcomings were evident in defeats against Greece, Kosovo, and Hungary.
Finland was one of the major stories of EURO 2020, as they reached a major tournament for the first time in their history. They were excellent throughout qualification in reaching the tournament, as they registered six wins from ten matches. That trajectory has continued over the past year, as they solidified their place in Nations League Division B.
In six Nations League fixtures, they picked up two wins, and conceded just six goals. Their recent form at the end of last year was also impressive, as they went four internationals without defeat. However, they come into their two opening qualifying matches having lost back-to-back games at the end of this year. Regardless, their opening two results promise to shape their qualification hopes.
The head-to-head record shows how closely these sides matchup. Northern Ireland holds a slender advantage having won on four occasions, while Finland has recorded three wins. However, Northern Ireland is unbeaten in their previous four against Finland. But, the most recent meeting in October 2015 ended in a 1-1 draw.
This is a pivotal match in the context of qualification for both nations, and a defeat could hamper their hopes of reaching Germany next year. Therefore, we could see the most likely outcome between the sides being a low-scoring draw.
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