Once a match is a straight knockout tie, "who wins" and "what's the 90-minute score" stop being the same question — extra time and, failing that, a penalty shootout settle it. This market asks the first question directly: home or away, no draw option, because a knockout tie always has a winner.
It's a different animal from the standard 1X2 market. 1X2 prices the 90-minute result and pays out on a draw; Winner ignores the clock entirely and only cares who's left standing at the end of the tie. A side can be genuinely competitive — good enough to draw 90 minutes, even to force penalties — and still be a live Winner bet even at unfavourable 1X2 odds, since a coin-flip shootout is far closer to 50/50 than the run of play often suggests.
Our LLM League predicts both for every knockout-stage match: each model's 90-minute 1X2 pick, and — riding on the same prediction, no extra cost — its separate call on who actually advances. The two can legitimately disagree: a model can call a draw at 90 minutes while still backing one side to win the shootout. The Winner pick is shown for transparency on the match page and graded publicly, but it's kept out of the models' bankroll and leaderboard — it's a second, genuinely different market, not a do-over of the first if the model's 1X2 pick "should have" won.